I've been thinking a lot about these two concepts recently, especially with regards to the Covid 19 pandemic.
I'm getting used to uncertainty. It's not easy.
Strangely, I felt quite certain a few months ago, when news of the outbreak in Wuhan was limited to Twitter and other corners of the internet. It was the knowledge of something big coming. I felt certain-and was vindicated.
But that certainty hasn't carried over as the country has shut down. In fact, it seems like the future is suddenly much more open ended. With 1 in 6 Americans unemployed (and who knows how many worldwide), the world has suddenly gotten more interesting, and more dangerous.
For instance, the stock market dropping by 30% within a few weeks was not nearly as surprising as its rapid bounce back up. While there tend to be bull traps in these bear markets, I couldn't have imagined we'd be back as high as we are already. My expectation is that it goes back down (and that's where my money is), but the FED has shown willingness to print money to prop up Big Business to such an extent that it may not matter.
So while market fundamentals are awful, the stock market itself is a mystery. It seems completely divorced from reality.
Media Driven "Certainty"
There are a lot of strong opinions from people Twitter and Facebook. They all share one thing in common: an attempt to feel certain about the future. These opinions become entrenched beliefs as I watch friends and strangers duke it out, proxy warriors in what are often media driven narratives.
But before we lose friendships over this, we should recall that the media botched this. FOX called it a "flu". Vox mocked tech bros who were taking responsibility for their health by wearing masks and avoiding contact.
While there is plenty of real news to be found (start with the Associated Press or Reuters), most of the industry is focused around editorials spun by loud entertainers. What will he say next!? is an awful, but viable way to get viewers to return after the commercial break.
We have ourselves to blame if we keep ingesting this, but some people may not know where to find alternatives.
I think the key is finding information sources that allow us to be comfortable with a level of uncertainty that is vastly different from the 20th century media model. We must strip out the unnecessary narratives and use our brains and known facts to create working ones to replace them.
This is especially important as we try and determine what the best course of action is to avoid disaster from the Covid 19 pandemic, whether humanitarian or economic.
The Truth Hierarchy
Notice, I said we must strip out "unnecessary narratives". I don't think we can toss aside all narratives. Our lives must have meaning.
Personally, I have created a mental model that puts my faith at the highest level of certainty: it is the hill I will die on, the one that creates decisions for everything else. There is nothing I am more certain of than my Catholic Faith; it is as close to 100% as anything will ever be in life.
When it comes to political beliefs, I am much more pragmatic. Of course, my political beliefs are modeled from my religious beliefs. However, there are a number of competing narratives on how to do that. I have held political beliefs in the recent past that I no longer hold; these can come and go much more easily, as I constantly reevaluate whether the model fits reality.
On other topics, I try to remain open minded. I've seen and heard too much poison from media personalities over completely inconsequential things. Once, while driving through Wisconsin, I heard a local AM radio DJ griping about roundabouts and how awful they were. How many people passively accepted her dislike of roundabouts without any critical thought, and were now certain that they were a negative for traffic and safety?
(I think roundabouts are overall good, but as I have no idea of the actual stats, it should come as little surprise that I allow myself to be uncertain about their efficacy.)
Less Opinions, More Curiousity
It's a difficult habit to drop, but I'm trying to have less opinions about things that don't matter to me, and more curiosity in general.
I'm open to others' thoughts on this. I'm trying to live a life that leads to more truth, and less certainty. I don't think those two are mutually exclusive concepts.
Do you?
-Jeff
Hey, @protegeaa.
There's quite a bit to unpack here. I guess as far as the coronavirus goes, we'll never know it's true impact (that is if the lockdowns have actually worked), because our leaders chose to sacrifice the economy over letting it run its course. I don't want people to die. I just think there's less drastic ways to protect the vulnerable than causing society to close up shop.
Not that it makes much difference. Here we are. Our leaders will undoubtedly take responsibility for whatever the outcomes are, whether they really should or warrant it or not, and more of us will believe that government needs to be a larger part of our lives, so we can get through all of the impending doom that no doubt will be thrust upon us from here on out.
I'm not into conspiracy theory. I like to work with what's happening, though, and it's been proven all over the world that government can shut us down, whether truly warranted or not, and do so at the drop of the hat, with a protest here, another there, but for the most part, most complying.
I don't want anyone getting sick because of me, and the uncertainty of being asymptomatic while being a carrier is the trump card. But again, we also need to reach a community immunity (if that even exists, depending on who you listen to, it might not).
The truth is, we could spend 24/7 trying to learn what's the best thing to do about everything, and we would still not really know all we needed to know. How we survive in the meantime, I don't know, because that kind of research and due diligence isn't greatly rewarded. Some might find a way to monetize it. Most can't. So, we end up relying on someone we think we can trust to give us information or serve as proxy on our behalf. Meantime, those folks can have agendas that aren't really benefiting us that much.
So, I guess I'm totally going against the theme of the post here, with essentially all opinion and little left to curiosity. :) I've been doing that a bit more than I should, I think. Must be my age. :)
For what it's worth, it's good to see you popping up with posts on HIVE. I hope you and yours are well and that you ultimately make your way through the maze of mis- dis, and actual information. That's been one of my ongoing goals for years now. Figure out where the truth lies, seek it out, and then try to apply it in a world that isn't necessarily that interested in truth as it is in gaining power, fame and fortune.
Hey Glen, good to hear from you!
First off, I hear you on not wanting people to die. Every indication two months ago was that Covid19 was absolutely bonkers and just wiping out Chinese and Italians. Twitter was the place to follow what was going on and it was scary.
But it has gotten far more complex since then. I think the institutional incompetence of the ruling class has been highlighted more clearly than it has since 2008.
The corruption runs deep. I am certain that human beings are fundamentally good but fallen. We sin. I sin. And when people rise higher in power, fame, and wealth, they're likely to sin more.
Or as Spiderman says, with great power comes great responsibility.
I'm curious when the current left-right paradigm will collapse and realign. It is untenable, I think.
Anyway, now I'm rambling, but I suppose it is good to get this out once in a while.
Looking forward to seeing what grandpa's gotta eat. 🤠