You quickly draw an arrow and shoot: 
the bow made a strange sound as the arrow launches, as if the string nearly broke, but you clip the foe for a hit of 2 points!. Nice! you needed to hit for 3 and including bonuses from items you hit for 3. You won the fight. Any pickpocket item found this Stage is left behind and may now progress to the next Stage once its posted by @lordnigel
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The calculation of my roll is correct -- 2 + 2 (clock) - 1 (gem) = 3.
Now the question of needing to roll a 3... is that because the bot now also detects your current stage and I was on the "2nd stage", or is that still a bug that needs to be fixed (because the skeleton needs only a 2 to knock off)?
Good sign!...yeah once you land a hit that says you have won and may progress to next stage, bot resets you life points and shifts you to the next stage. This is by design (if we were playng a tournamant I would mention the needed hit to win is 3...the bot can be tweaked at start of tournament to predefine needed hit to win each stage :)). Feel free to test on a little, but I haven't programmed it to cope past Stage 5 yet.
!life
Enjoy Stage 3. You have all 3 life points to start:
!ibtluckydip
You hold item 2: Clock! +2 to players hit!
!openpockets