RE: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions

[drakos]

Climatologists have supercomputers to predict the weather, but their models work very short term, a few days at best. Which is a good thing, their work is vital for air travel and hurricanes, however they're not always accurate, despite their advanced technology. For example, tomorrow will be 50% chance of rain... ok, that means 50% of no rain. You have similar odds flipping a coin!

Even for hurricanes, they can't get it right:

Dorian is expected to slow as it approaches Florida, but forecasters say it's too soon to determine where the greatest impacts will be.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2019/08/29/hurricane-dorian-hit-florida-major-category-3-storm-labor-day/2149021001/

It's all statistics. If they can't get things right for a few days, how can they predict anything 1 year, even 10 years from now?

Comments

[jga]

The weather is a chaotic system, and yes, this is the reason behind the difficult to predict if it will rain in 2 weeks. However, this is true when you try to see it at local level, and finding specific things (like raining in a particular area).

But if you see it at the global level, then it is more easy to predict. You for sure know what is the average temperature of your city.

Look this image:

source

This is the temperature change relative to 1850, almost two centuries ago. Look the bull market! it is pretty clear the tendency for the next decade.

[drakos]

The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare

The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures.

The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder minimum, and northern-hemisphere temperatures during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from the previous 80 years, suggesting a decline in solar activity was not the main causal driver of the Little Ice Age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Furthermore:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/maunder-minimum

After 1715 AD, the number of observed sunspots increased sharply from near zero to 50–100 and the global climate warmed.

1.3.3 Temperature, Sunspots, and Total Solar Irradiance
Temperatures during the Maunder closely correlate with SSNs and TSI (Fig. 14.11). When SSNs and TSI are low, temperatures are also low, and when SSNs and TSI are high, temperatures are high.

So, given the high sustained solar activity in the last 300 years, it had a snowball effect (no pun intended) causing a steady increase in temperature, i.e. the sun doesn't care about human emissions. Humans think they can fight the sun?

[wikitextbot]

Maunder Minimum
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The term was introduced after John A. Eddy published a landmark 1976 paper in Science. Astronomers before Eddy had also named the period after the solar astronomers Annie Russell Maunder (1868–1947) and her husband, Edward Walter Maunder (1851–1928), who studied how sunspot latitudes changed with time. The period which the spouses examined included the second half of the 17th century.