Going against the consensus sometimes is profitable. For example, Hillary Clinton had the most chance to win elections, but Trump was elected at the end. This caused some big movements in the FX market. I'm not sure if this kind of sudden moves can be forecasted.
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Well not only in the FX, the Stocks, etc.
You are right, but on the opposit way of saying, trading "against the trend" might be harmful. But as you said..its not a rule.