Yes, you are quite right. Exactly by that reason we are consequently using the term “prognostication” instead of “prediction”. The only thing we can know is the way, how future looks like from the current point. One step forward and everything may change. But normally future doesn’t change significantly with each single step. One has to be very smart to change the perspective with just one move.
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I did a shamanic course once where the future was likened to a hand. All things being equal, the thumb will probably happen, but the pinky is still possible though not as likely. Also, a non English speaker using the word prognostication is impressive 😉
Well, it is my profession. I mean prognostications.