I wanted to get some info off my chest. VERY long post so apologize in advance but hopefully some of you take the time to read through it and find some useful info. This is NOT to bash holders at all but is simply an explanation of why I personally do not hodl, especially in a bear market. This is not financial advice but this is just some general knowledge info and some reasoning for why I trade currently.
I enjoy watching the charts, I enjoy technical analysis, and I enjoy sharing and hopefully helping anyone else who has similar interests. I am not some pro trader or some crystal ball/BTC whisperer. I'm learning each and every day like many of you but have put a lot of time and dedication over the last year to just learning TA and have begun putting this knowledge into motion and actual usage over the past several months.
I also fully recognize many do not believe in TA at all and regardless of positive outcome after positive outcome from charts, they will not change their mind. And this is perfectly fine. It's their money, their portfolio. I will always agree there is tons of bad TA out there and do not exclude my own TA at times and most traders do not outpace long term holding. We all make mistakes, we all miss certain signs, and unfortunately some just do randomly put up charts with some random info that does not follow any specific TA rules. I try not to ever do the latter part.
Why do I believe in TA?? Honestly - I didn't for years! Because I didn't understand it. I had no clue what RSI, MACD, trend lines, moving averages, divergence, etc truly meant. It's intimidating AF! Then I started questioning my moves (in stock market at the time) of WHY am I buying at this level or selling at that level? I couldn't give myself an honest and great reason other than thinking I like Apple or Amazon stock so just buy it or I made 10% gains here so just sell it for profits, etc. I do hold stocks for long positions as well but my personal nature is I enjoy being more active in markets. Not everyone is like that and holding is just fine especially in BULL market cycles.
Then in 2016 I was introduced to crypto. I'd never seen a market like it before. I am not some tech savvy guy who knows how to code and program or anything but I do love investment opportunities and saw one with crypto. I READ Satoshi's whitepaper for BTC. And then I read it again. and again. Majority I'd be willing to bet have not read the original whitepaper so please, do so. It's good info.
I started buying some BTC mainly and then in early 2017 expanded out into some other alts. And then like most of us in the market for over a year, gains just started pouring in. It was literally raining profits. Ohh ABC coin is up 10%, throw money at it and check tomorrow and it's up 30%. Oh XYZ coin has a cool logo, throw money at it, it's up 80% in a week now. I didn't know what I was buying all the time, I had a vague understanding of some of the projects but just wasn't taking the time to research as at the time it just didn't seem necessary. You couldn't miss, it felt like 99% of your coins just went up, and went up a ton for no real reason.
Then I stopped and questioned WTF is going on?? Are these gains justified? Why are things just flying up? I became skeptical and then came late summer 2017 and Alts started coming down in price. I didn't understand why, everything always bounced back off any pull backs previously so surely it would this time too right? And then things kept falling, and kept falling and my alt portfolio quickly gave back loads of profits I had never cashed out. I had chosen to "Hodl". It was this experience that turned me to TA where I began to question why didn't I know when to sell and profit take? I had been studying TA for a couple months at the time just out of interest but wasn't practicing it as I still did not feel comfortable in doing so. But this Alt crash opened my eyes and from that moment I decided in an extremely volatile market, Hodling was just not for me personally. I enjoy profits and I enjoy KEEPING my gains. So I started studying TA more, HOURS upon HOURS each and every day. I couldn't get enough. Late hours at night just watching "pro" traders on YouTube, reading articles, watching and studying tradingview charts from others. I became obsessed with it and knew eventually this would pay off for me in this crazy crypto world. (Stocks and trading I am VERY different. I have more fundamentals to go off of in stocks and the volatility is nowhere near crypto so I trade stocks far less frequently and hold stocks far longer).
And when I finally felt comfortable with testing my TA knowledge (October or so), I began finding appropriate exit points on many of my alt coins and wanted to start fresh. I was still up plenty in USD value as BTC was just an absolute beast and can carry even alts that are losing in sats value. But I knew I could be up more if I was smarter with my entries and exits. I was making very small trades, testing the waters, seeing if there were solid returns or not, and I was having fun again! Watching your portfolio plummet in value is NOT fun. I don't care how much you pretend and say it'll bounce back, just hodl, its for the long term, etc, etc, etc. Losses suck. Plain and simple.
But this was late 2017 now and BTC was continuing to just bull run up to the end of the year and then Alts had their nice rally again. I kept track of my positions relatively well to see, was I making more money trading vs holding. And NO. I was not at the time. I could not out trade an insanely bull market. I was not skilled enough and knew it. BUT I also recognized I wasn't doing this for the short term, I was learning and practicing TA for the long term in order to be profitable in any market and at any time. Bullish, bearish, sideways, it doesn't matter to me anymore. I feel confident and comfortable in any market to be able to make money because in the end a chart is a chart and I'll find a way to trade it and make profits. In another insanely bull market, trading becomes far less important to me as out trading that market is very hard and likely not worth the effort/time but when things get shaky and bear markets take place, TA can save your ass.
Now enter 2018! The BEARS come to play and they come in hard. Here we go again, down come prices, market caps are plummeting. And for the first time, I felt prepared. I felt ready and was not worried (ok I was a little but I'm a man damn it and bears don't scare me). Yes I took an initial hit as I was caught up in the hype still of crypto to the moon. Nobody can stop the freight train! And then reality set in. I recognized I needed to be much more active in the market to continue profit taking and it was time to take this bear market and crush it.
And so I began, chart after chart after chart. I made plenty of mistakes still but now those mistakes were far less costly than me hodling. I wasn't losing 20, 30, 50% or more of my positions on any coin anymore. I was making trades and taking profits (a take profits and walk attitude). I shifted more towards GDax for comfort in sheltering to USD when needed and still used and continue to use Tether to an extent on other exchanges but am very skeptical of tether and prefer not to use it. Trading was going great. I continued to see my portfolio go up (sure it wasn't flying up like 2016/2017 with minimal effort needed) but it was climbing! And that's what I cared about.
The market shifted in 2018 and we are still in a pretty nasty downtrend and I've chosen to adapt to the market and take what the market is willing to give me. Hodling in my opinion was not the best option like it may have been in 2017. When the market shifts back to a bull run, absolutely I'll hold positions FAR longer and won't need to be day trading and scalping small % gains each day BUT I also won't be needing 50, 80, 100, 150% gains on coins just to get back to even for the highs like many hodlers currently need. A bull market just grows those gains even more. Currently I continue to scalp trades, short swing trades, day trades, etc. I am not holding positions, I rarely go to bed still in a position and I ALWAYS have stop losses in place. The take profits and walk attitude has worked great and I don't care if I took profits at only 3% or 5% or 10% gains and the coin ran to 25% gains. I TOOK profits and I'll never regret profit taking.
Many have asked me about profit taking and my own personal strategy which I don't mind sharing. I do not want to be overweight in any market. I still strongly believe in the old saying of "don't invest what you can't afford to lose". I am very strict with myself on how I manage my investments and risks. I pulled out my initial investment into crypto very early on so I could play with "house money". But it's not house money, its my damn money now. And I don't want to lose that either. House money mentality makes people take unnecessary risks with the money because they don't consider it theirs. So I set up a specific dollar amount I wanted in the crypto markets, let's call this "X". On the 1st of each and every month, I take a look at my total portfolio value and subtract X from that amount. Whatever that remainder is I cash out to FIAT. Yes, FIAT. I don't care. I then use that fiat to diversify into other areas even if those areas may not generate the same returns. I again don't personally want to be overweight in any market and have found when I have gotten into too large of positions, it's f'ing stressful! I don't trust my TA as much, I shake out too quickly and I just can't keep those emotions in check. Sure compounding my gains into more gains sounds great in theory but I am just not there yet personally. One day, maybe I will be but I recognize I am not yet. So I have an alert on my phone and 1st of the month comes and that alert goes off and I take those profits. NO QUESTIONS. I just do it and it feels great! I earned those profits and I'll be damned if I don't take them. I do feel bad for many who have held for 2018 and are down boat loads of money or just have given back boat loads of their gains. That sucks, I've been there, we've probably all been there.
Call me greedy, call me selfish, tell me I'm not in it for the greater good of crypto and should just HODL my positions because of the love for crypto. I don't care. I am in a market to make profits. I am in this game to improve my families financial position. And just because I am profit taking doesn't mean I am not helping crypto in the long run if I am then able to rebuy the same exact coin at double the position as what I had when I sold for the same exact amount of money. Of course I want crypto to succeed. It would be great but it's still a young and immature market and I'll earn my way towards profits and continue to take them.
OK, I think that about wraps up my moment on a soapbox. I hope this does help some of you. I hope it does motivate someone, even if it's just one, to learn TA or just recognize there are other options and just because HODL became the catchy term of 2017, does not mean you have to live by it. What I do NOT recommend is just jumping into trading and trading your entire portfolio like there is no tomorrow. Don't over trade, know the risk/reward to an entry, know where to set up stop losses, etc. Recognize you don't have to always be in a trade. Doing NOTHING is an option and is often the best option. Don't force trades, they will come to you and they will show themselves when it's time. MOST traders FAIL and I fully recognize this and that I may ultimately FAIL at this but for now it's working and beats the pants off holding this bearish run. There are plenty of ways to trade and loads of info out there to learn from. It's time consuming and it is NOT for everyone. Not everyone has the time, the patience, or the care to learn TA and that's fine. As I said at the start, it's your money and your portfolio. Thanks for your time and good luck to all!
Just My 2 Sats
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