Great article overall, but you are wrong on one important point. Well, actually, you are both right and wrong about it. It requires clarification. When you write that Trump's base seems to be perfectly fine with the narrative that Regime Change in Iran is different than Regime Change in Iraq and Libya, it depends upon what you mean by "Trump's Base". If you mean the people who voted in the Primary to make him the Republican Nominee for President, then, unfortunately, you are pretty much 100% right. But, these are not the people who made him President. A very significant percentage of Americans voted Obama, Obama, Trump. This was not the majority by any means, but it is the group that swung the Election. These voters do not like Regime Change in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, or anywhere else. They want the Government to fix America and not to fix the World. If Donald Trump wants more than one term as President, then that is the "Base" that he needs to pay attention to.
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I pretty much agree, Trumps base is focused on America, they'd rather stay out of the ME. My own opinion would be that whatever happens with Iran it's been in the works for quite some time, the Iranian deal was just going to be the pacifier to the public when and if shit hits the fan, they'll come at everyone saying look how many countries gave them a chance and they blew it type excuses.