Hi Brian, An excellent piece. Whilst the Iranian Mullahs should be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons this piece shows that they may be a longer way from achieving that goal than many may have previously assumed. As the piece said even if the Iranians can get the technical stuff regarding the weapon right, they've still go to deliver it and that is where they will almost inevitably fall down.
One thing that might be worth thinking about is what if the Mullahs, in a fit of deluded eschatological thinking, decided to take out their own people because their designs against Israel and the West have been thwarted? Could they do an Adolf and blame the Iranian people for the regime's defeat and therefore decide to destroy their own country as a result? Even if the Iranian regime cannot deliver WMD's to others they could deliver WMD's onto their own people.
There's one thing about nuclear weapons which is interesting: it's pretty easy to know where they came from. Every nuclear reactor which can produce the kinds of material we're talking about leaves a tell tale signature in the ratios of various isotopes released.
Whilst any nuclear weapons Israel may or may not have are pretty mysterious, you can assume that a number of independent sources including the Russians and the Americans will know where anything that goes boom in Iran actually came from.