One of the best posts I've read on this topic.
Personally I'm expecting a significant amount of value to flow towards SPS from other liquid Splinterlands assets certainly after the first year once the print rate declines.
The only question in my mind in the near to medium term (next year) is what's the best play to accumulate more SPS tokens and take a cheeky profit on top.
I imagine it's a game most of us are playing - sell now with the intention of timing the bottom - which I imagine will be shortly before the Chaos pre-sale announcements start coming out.
There is a significant Whale factor yet to be unleashed - the capacity of larger stake holders to dump, those with sufficient SPS from their drop for them to EASILY have the maximum tier stake for any max level promotions.
So I think for me short term selling is the way to go - especially when you can currently sell for cake, stake for SPS, and then easily swap that Cake back for SPS if the price dips.
Having said that i'm only selling half, staking half seems like a sensible way to go.
It's a game within a game!
Very well put @revise.spt. I think this SPS phenomena is going to open up the market a great deal which will be great for everyone involved, especially the new player. The new player will be highly incentivized first to buy as many Chaos Legion packs since older cards have gone parabolic, and they will have at least one series where they are on immediate equal footing to the rest of us.
Also the token can make a serious move up with many of the people that are simply selling to lock in value at the moment anticipating a bottom can very possibly get locked out of trying to catch a bottom. The whale factor is very real with additional markets and swaps open now for them to jump much more efficiently with other crypto gains than ever.
The genius in game theory of this SPS token is something that I think could be talked about much more down the road. For me personally the other swaps are very cool and lend the chance for countless new people to dive in. But I actually prefer working with whatever is the "closest to the game." The closest assets to the game are DEC and SPS. Right now the like return for SPS until all the tokens are distributed in a little over 5 years bottoms at a poultry 30%, lol. Think of that... what other asset gives you another return for simply hodling? Think if there were a precious metals store that could give you that kind of return, say a 30% return (or whatever the current whopping return is at the moment in game for SPS staking) for simply locking in your gold for 5 years? It's astounding if you are bullish in the long term viability of the game and the incredible ecosystem.
Thanks a ton for the really well thought out comment this is exactly the discussion I was opening to open up. Good luck with your pursuits and keep the higher level thinking up, it's apparent you've really thought this through, and thanks a ton for the high praise it's really appreciated.