I was curious what do you think about prediction markets? Such as Polymarket, the biggest one.
Well, there are two views on it. The first one says that big votes for Trump for example leads to market manipulation for what..a few milion dolars? Maybe few dozens. But is it worth? Not sure.
THe other view is that it simply shows people and their professional opinion, or at least the one with which they have skin in the game in terms of money they put to their bet.
So let's see actual Polymarket chart for who will be the next US president.
Source: https://polymarket.com/elections
So according to Polymarket, Trump will win. So we might say that there are experienced voters voting on his presidency, or bigger manipulators voting big money on his election. Where is the truth?
We will see tomorrow :-)