I follow the timings of past cycles, I dont focus on month to month and think year to year so when the crypto cycle is currently only 4 years, you can get a good ballpark of when things should be doing what.
Plus i dont think i would beable to spend 10k HBD on potential 10x tokens, it would prob be something like 50/50 as you've suggested. 20% is hard to give up, lol.