It is time to have a bit of fun and consider where Hive is going to be the future. We often get caught up in short term markets, overlooking the bigger picture. With Hive, the long term framework is starting to change.
Over the last couple weeks, we discussed some topics and developments are starting to change Hive's standing within the world of cryptocurrency. In fact, we can start to claim that Hive is a foundation for Web 3.0. Some might take exception with that but it is really how things are starting to unfold.
The inspiration for this article can from Cathy Wood. Her team is known for their bold predictions. For that reason, we can chart Hive in parallel with what they are doing to come up with a price target.
We will go further and do our best to substantiate it.
Ethereum Worth $20 Trillion
By the end of the decade, Wood predicts that Bitcoin will be at $1 million per coin. This is nothing outlandish since others made this call. Where the Ark team differs is they put a market capitalization of $20 trillion on Ethereum. That would lead to a per coin price of around $170K.
At present, Ethereum is sitting at just under that $1,700 market.
The core of the thesis is the idea that Ethereum is going to take a great deal of business away from Traditional Finance (TradFi). Since it is the smart contract blockchain of choice, the disruption posed to the existing financial community should benefit Ethereum. That is the view at least.
This was presented in their Big Ideas 2022 report.
One of the main points emphasized is the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is much cheaper to operate than TradFi. They way they charted it is the revenue per employee over a 12 month period. If their numbers are correct, it isn't even close. DeFi provides a 10x return per employee.
Presuming this is correct, which seems logical, we can see how DeFi is poised to disrupt the existing financial system. This is something that many in cryptocurrency would agree with. Nothing really Earth-shattering here.
The question is will things unfold as Ark sees it?
HIVE At $60
Before going into some other parts of the analysis, we are going to do some quick math. If Ark is right about a $20 trillion market cap on Ethereum, then we are looking at roughly 100x from this point.
If we apply the same move to Hive, we get a market capitalization of $22 billion.
So while there is nothing that states a lockstep move will take place between the two coins, it does show that, based upon the Ethereum forecast, $60 is in line.
Of course, we know markets do not operate in this manner so we will have to dig a bit deeper.
Hive Is The Blockchain Vitalik Wants To Build
There are challenges with Ethereum. This is something the development team is working on. Vitalik even came out and said after the Merge, they would be about 55% done. This will lead to surge, verge, purge, and splurge.
It is cited, to a degree, in Ark's research. They mentioned the activity on Ethereum pushing the transaction fees up.
Here is where it gets interesting. The comparison is to Bitcoin, which makes sense since that is also high on their list. However, as we pointed out repeatedly, Hive excels in this area. Due to the Resource Credit system, this is not an issue. As long as an account has a minimal amount of Hive Power, the RCs exist to conduct a transaction.
This is the most basic use case of HIVE. We recently discussed how the need for Hive Power is going to grow due to on chain activity. With Hive, transactions are possible by making an investment as opposed to incurring an expense like traditional transaction fees.
They also acknowledge some of the major challenges:
Here is where we see the difference in philosophies. Ethereum has smart contracts at the base layer and is looking to Layer 2 solutions to help it to scale. Hive is very tight at the base layer, seeking scalability at this level. The intention is to have smart contract resident off chain.
Web 3.0: An Internet Revolution
This is something we can agree with Ark on. Web 3.0 is going to change the Internet completely.
The challenge is their report focused upon NFTs, and the fact that Ethereum, due to base layer smart contracts, is the leader in this realm. To them, change is coming in terms of digital asset ownership.
While it is something that most of us will agree upon, this is just one facet of the larger picture.
They envision a completely new form of entertainment and engagement.
Again, we can agree upon this. However, when socializing, are users going to want to pay transaction fees each time they engage? Is this realistic as we delve further into virtual worlds?
Many believe this simply is not the case. In fact, we covered how Hive is already at the epicenter of Web 3.0 social media.
It is hard to get an estimate on the total value of social media but we do have one comparison: Twitter, and its bots, have a market capitalization of $31 billion. If Hive reaches a price of $100, that would put the market cap around $37 billion.
Thus, we are looking for a little more than Twitter for $100 HIVE.
Is this really possible? One of the things Ark cited was digital ownership. With Hive, users have full ownership of their accounts. This not only applies to social media activities but also financial ones as well. All DeFi built into Hive means full control of one's wallet.
The Final Pieces
Ark mentioned the fact that regulators are now "prioritizing crypto innovations". That is a nice way of saying, they want to regulate them so they are under control of the present system.
Here is where Hive also excels. Since the coin distribution is such that nobody owns more than 5%, it is hard to make the case it is centralized. With a decentralized system, regulations do not apply since there is no way to enforce it. Who is responsible for filing to ensure Hive is in compliance? The answer is nobody. At the same time, there is no door to knock on if compliance is not met.
This really applies to another area where Ark promoted Ethereum: stablecoins. They believe there will be tremendous growth in that area over the next decade. Again, it is a concept that is easy to agree with.
Ultimately, any of the stablecoins on Ethereum will have to be in compliance. The entities that issue them will have to register, most likely as a bank, to be able to operate.
Hive has the solution to this: Hive Backed Dollar (HBD).
In this situation there is no registering, for reasons just mentioned. Since the coin is at the base layer, the decentralization of the system means the blockchain is actually behind it, not a company. At the same time, there is an internal exchange, also tied to the base layer, that is outside the regulatory agencies.
Even if exchanges were banned from listing it (few do anyway), this is not much of a problem. The internal exchange means that HBD can be acquired by anyone. We are also seeing derivates being produced that are being dropped into liquidity pools. All this adds up to the fact the regulators can go pound sand.
What is having a stablecoin outside the reach of all governments worth? Over time, that will add billions in value to Hive.
The final piece from Ark that we will cite is gaming. This is where things get very interesting.
Notice what is on the chart they create: Axie Infinity. Do you notice what is missing?
We do not have to say much about this. One thing that is important is that with the expected roll out of Hive Application Framework (HAF), we are going to see life get a lot easier for developers looking to integrate blockchain into their applications and games.
With easier development coupled with the speed of Hive, we might see this place become a destination for some new games. There are a handful in the works already.
In Closing
The price of HIVE going to $100 might seem far-fetched at this moment. However, if we step back and take the long term view, is it really unrealistic?
Having an ecosystem that as near $40 billion in value realized through its base layer coin in a decade makes a lot of sense, especially when we consider what is taking place. Hive with even 10 million users would have a much higher market capitalization.
Right now we are still in the building stage. There are other projects not mentioned in this article that are also going to feed into this.
Cathy Wood is right, much of TradFi will end up tied to blockchain. The same will be said for social media and online marketing.
Hive is actually setting itself up to be a force in all these different areas. Some of the pieces are starting to come together now. The next 6 months should see a few roll outs that make a difference in what people do on chain.
Ultimately, we are talking about industries that have tens of trillions in value. Hive is seeking just a small portion of that.
Therefore, with continued development, we could see $100 HIVE in a decade. The foundation is going in place for that to occur.
What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comment section below.
Images for Ark taken from link to their report
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The sad thing is, even with Hive at $100 there will still be those people who can't wrap their heads around it or think it is all a hoax. They are going to be left high and dry. It makes me a little sad, but in the end, it is their own fault.
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That is true. The old saying can lead a horse to water...
The potential is enormous as is always the case with disruption. That is what Cathy Wood was showing. However, their focus upon Ethereum, while sensible, overlooks the power of Hive.
We can do $40 billion if Ethereum has a market cap of $20 trillion.
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I think they are still banking on ETH 2.0 coming out some time soon. I am starting to wonder if we will ever see PoS ETH! :)
They will get there but how much of the issue does it clear up. And even Vitalik is saying there still is a lot more to add to it. They will only be 60% complete.
How long until the next upgrade? Another 3-4 years?
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Exactly!
It wouldn’t be in today’s spending power at $100.00
It would be inflated dollar value a few years from now. Still far higher than today’s real spending value price indeed. I just think people are missing it will be like two boats meeting in the night. The dollar value will drop a lot after it’s no longer the reserve currency by 2030 or so. Hive will increase in real terms but also move up due to currency crisis that will hit all fiat. This I believe to be true.
Whatever happens we know the Hive price is going up and is good news for everyone building their value on the blockchain. I would be happy with $5 so anything over that is a bonus and have kept an open mind of where things could end up and try not to think about it too much.
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I understand. But when we see the long term potential, it is truly amazing. There is so much going on that will start to leverage itself against other things.
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I have this thought about the price of the Hive.
Sometimes I feel like we should have Hive dollar day. Like we should buy 10 USD worth of Hive and maybe that would keep the cashflow going. I don't know if this would work. But if Hive power up works for some accounts I am sure buying 10 USD worth of hive once a year may work if done on specific day of the year by major new and old accounts, isn't it?
Marky tried that in the past and, as you can guess, it went over like a lead balloon.
Basically we have to keep fostering utility, give a people a reason to have to buy it. Not trying to rig the system or play with the markets but earnest reasons for having it.
Access to the blockchain via resource credits is a good starting point. Now we just need to see an increase in activity.
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Although it may seem crazy to some, it is not. You just have to look at the evolution of the crypto market in recent years.
At least those figures would make me really happy.
That is true. Sometimes to look where things are going, check where they were.
The progress of the entire industry over the last 3 years is incredible. Now we can project that forward three and get some idea of the move ahead.
Going out a decade really shows the room to grow things.
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If all the predictions together with the changes that will be achieved soon, it may be that everything they have in mind is very close to reality, but the question is how long could all those predictions be fulfilled with Cryptocurrencies and their market capitalization?
Cathy Wood used a decade so I did the same.
Looking about 2030 but that is nothing more than a guess. The truth is we have no clue. Just forecasts and analysis based upon what we do know at this time.
The future is always unknown.
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How can anyone miss Splinterlands when it is obvious to see on DappRadar Splinterlands ranks top 3 most played blockchain game?
I am one of those having no doubt Hive in a decade can be worth $100, considering the foundation being set on the chain with development not to mention free transaction fees as long as one has RC. I definitely don't want to be paying to respond to this article.
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To me, that is the downfall of any social media with transaction fees. People, in my view, simply will not use it. That is something Hive works around.
One can see it isnt free and that is true. Yet an investment allows for engagement as opposed to expense.
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One thing I'm proud of about hive is > rest of world > Vitalik, centralised exchanges, regulators etc creating more hype around web 3.0
meanwhile Hive is just Building, building more and building more - Right time will come when user base will be in millions having true ownership or safe decentralised environment in hive - people will do accept it!
There's no doubt hive has lot of potential and is multi billion $ industry of people in new era of internet!
Amazing in depth analysis as always!
The developers and project teams are doing an incredible job. We are very small compared to the others but we keep building and expanding. That is the going to pay off in the long run.
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Indeed no doubt in that - we are small but way ahead than them.
They can't even come closer to us in the long term!
i would say that this applies to traditional entities such as a corporation, but what happens when it's a DAO that operates the stable coin? Seems like that would still be possible on Ethereum and would be decentralised. i suppose that the DAO would still need to hold the assets backing the stablecoin in a bank or via treasuries, somewhere.
It's going to be interesting and HBD being at the base layer is certainly a benefit to Hive.
If it is a DAO, then I would say there is a chance for it. However, if the node operators are targeted, it could really make things hairy.
A lot of things to work around. It is going to be interesting to see how this all unfolds. The key is to get rid of the founder's stake. That appears to be fatal.
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All the times that I thought it was far-fetched, it kind of happened anyway. At the time when we saw a $100 dollar BTC, we wouldn't expect it to be worth 65K-ish, right? Even though that was about 8 years ago. It is still a 6,500x (crazy!). Hive can hold real value when people can purchase real-time with it, oh wait... this is already happening. It will just be a matter of time when people start to accept HIVE or HBD as payments as well. I've been looking into accepting HBD for a long time, and it seems due to regulations in the Netherlands this seems to be getting less and less difficult to do.
Yes we can see how things occurred which few expect within the cryptocurrency realm. For this reason, it could happen to Hive also.
We are really seeing some progress with development and expansion.
The next 6 months is going to be fun.
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Absolutely amazing and brilliant analysis. 👏
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Great post! We wait for this moment to come 😎
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. Keep up the fantastic work
While it is possible, I am just unsure how things will be for new users. They will need more RCs to be active and this will either be paid for by the application or the user. As the blockchain won't be increasing the size of the blocks, the amount of HP they need to stake will just continue to increase over time.
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Personally, I see this image being to fulfill cause the development and improvement on this blockchain take time but it has shown their grounds are firm.
I think Hive is waiting on some tipping point to make it massive. Crypto in general may already be there, but stories of hacks, frauds and massive price swings put people off. I have been on here six years and it has been pretty solid. Almost all I have has been earned from being social, so I may be an example of what it can do. Not everyone wants to be a blogger, but some will enjoy the games.
For the price to go up we need lots more people using Hive as well as those who actually invest in it. I think the infrastructure is there and we just need the right sort of marketing. Then anything is possible.
I don't see it as far-fetched at all, except that it seems a little conservative. Assuming that it holds its value against Bitcoin at 2k to 4k sats per Hive, and each sat May very well be worth a dollar, we are looking at $600 being a real bargain.
As a certain credit card commercial used to say... PRICELESS.
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Considering that HIVE already hit a billion dollar market cap in 2021... it basically means doing a 30X on that high over the next couple of years. Not really unimaginable... that being said, even a $50 HIVE would be significant and a game-changer. What often seems over ambitious in the formative years is later dwarfed by reality...
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Surprisingly, few people know about Hive. It seems to me that this is not just the case. While other cryptos advertise, the Hive builds and builds. It could play a big role in the future, not so far away