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Igor Pshenichnikov, an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS):
Leading US analytical and consulting center Eurasia Group has released a report with the intriguing title “The biggest risks of 2018”. The report, replicated by leading American media, predicted that in the coming year “the biggest geopolitical events” are coming. Commenting on this report, the American CNBC called them "catastrophic."
What is it? An unbiased forecast in the interests of international political and business players who use the paid services of consultants from the Eurasia Group? Or simply intellectual gymnastics, which the consulting firm publicly deals with “solely to help investors and business decision makers understand the impact of policies on risks and opportunities in foreign markets,” in other words, for their own advertising?
Attention is drawn to the fact that in the American “smart” editions at the end of 2017, analytical articles appeared, the authors of which point to the greater likelihood of the next catastrophic events. For example, Robert Farley, a lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Trade at the University of Kentucky, published an article in The National Interest entitled Five Places where the Third World War could begin in 2018. In addition, NATO issues reports, from which it follows that the prospect of all mankind is a war that the alliance will wage against the main enemy of the whole “civilized” world, that is, against Russia. Coincidence?
And now the consulting firm Eurasia Group, which is very well-known, has offices on all continents. Everything would be nothing - who knows what and what predicts! But only experts of this company are some former ministers and even prime ministers of various foreign governments (that is, the level of expert opinion is supposedly high), and the clients are, accordingly, international business sharks and those who make political decisions at the highest level in different countries. In addition, the Eurasia Group has its own "political risk index on Wall Street that covers the markets of Eurasia and the markets of developing countries." In short, the Eurasia Group is positioning itself as the lord of the minds of the Western world and in a sense it is. That is why it is quite interesting that the firm, in the person of its founders and leading experts Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan, predicts exactly what to do in 2018.
And she predicts for 2018 no less a geopolitical catastrophe, which, according to the authors of the report, can be triggered by numerous international political and economic factors. Meanwhile, before stunning their customers with “causes” that allegedly “lead the world to geopolitical changes,” the authors of the report “The Greatest Risks of 2018” prepared the ground for it - another report “After G-0 (G-zero) fragmentation.
The objective of this report is to convince the public that the current world is devoid of any leadership, that the current leaders of the leading countries have lost any opportunity to rule world politics and economics. Therefore, the authors of the report actively operate on the new political science concept “G-0” (by analogy with G-7 or G-20), which means: the place of the world leader is empty.
What does the Eurasia Group lead to? Given the fundamental importance of further quotes for understanding the issue, I will give it as fully as possible. Here is what the Americans write - the rulers of the minds: “The world order that prevailed since the end of the Second World War has reached its limits. The destruction of long-standing internal, regional and international political equilibria has made politicians less able and less willing to cooperate internationally. As a result, a world was born that is characterized by the G-0 situation in which the global governance vacuum is growing. But this breakdown in an unmanageable world will not last forever. Sooner or later, the situation in the G-0 style will give way to a new world order that will come after it. The question is whether people all over the world will remain passive throughout the whole process, or will they take an active role in determining what future they want to live in. ”
Here it is. It turns out that the world is not controlled by anyone and therefore fragmented. But it is read between the lines: the world is not controlled by the United States, and therefore different centers of power arise. That's the problem! But, according to the Eurasia Group, it will be resolved, and the US will regain the lost role of the hegemon by establishing a new world order, in which people of the entire planet will take an active part. Otherwise, “international fragmentation can damage the functioning of key global regimes in such a way that nothing can be corrected,” the Eurasia Group fears.
And we in Russia did not even know that some Arabian Bedouins, clerks from the Paris offices or winegrowers from Italy were involved in solving global issues. However, it is very important to instill in Bedouins, clerks and wine-growers that it is they, and not the world “elite” represented by transnational corporations and financiers from Wall Street, who will establish a new world order. Let the people think that he thought it up himself.
But more importantly, this is not a prediction, but a suggestion, a mantra. Who said that the loss of the role of the hegemon by the States is something bad? It is said by the Americans, who are trying to convince everyone else that without the role of the hegemon performed by the United States, the world will collapse into tartar.
And on this ground, driven by the mantras about the fragmentation of the world, new seeds of fear are being sown in the form of the report “The Greatest Risks of 2018”. From it, the world “elite”, involved in the adoption of global political and economic decisions, learns how and where the present world will certainly fall apart, on the ruins of which the very new world order will arise.
We will bring complete clarity and dispel the fog of political sophistication of Americans. The gullible (or stupid) international public is taught to think that “tragic geopolitical changes” are inevitable due to the fact that the world is supposedly starting a new socio-political cycle. And he allegedly brings with him a change of the old, post-war world order. But fundamentally, the “global catastrophe” is the only chance for the US, and even then it is not obvious, to regain somehow the lost role of the hegemon. Because it is clear that in the present conditions of relative universal peace, the US will not regain the position of the 1990s: they have lost the role of hegemon even among their Western allies; the collective West is split, everyone thinks first of all about himself; in the European Union there is no agreement, it is bursting at the seams; NATO does not stop disputes over who and how to pay for defense from Russia, while Russia, meanwhile, does not attack anyone at all, and rubbing up points about the “Russian threat” cannot last for long.
For the sake of such a thing as the greatness of America, it is possible to provoke a global catastrophe. But how to explain that it will happen “by itself, due to objective circumstances,” and not at the will of America itself?
And here they are, these “objective circumstances”, which the Eurasia Group calls “the risks of 2018”.
Among the main “risks” and causes of the “impending catastrophe” are the Trump presidency, as a result of which the situation in the G-0 style has allegedly worsened. The world, they say, has become even more out of control. (It can be assumed that the tragic forecast is another “hitting” on Trump from the liberal political community. But is Trump just to blame for the fact that the US is losing the role of world leader? Trump is just a comfortable figure that can be kicked. And the US has not lost its for Trump).
Further, according to the authors of the report, the world is waiting for a financial crisis of the type that occurred in 2008. They say that with the departure of the United States from the position of the world leader, a vacuum has formed that will fill China economically, while Western economies will suffer damage. “Until last year, China avoided talking about global leadership, but now it sets international standards with less external resistance than ever before,” the report says.
Among other threats, probable “accidents” are called. The security of the world, the report says, hangs in the balance as a result of numerous conflicts (North Korea, Syria, Iran and others), which by negligence of the parties can develop into a global crisis such as the Cuban crisis of 1962, when the world was balanced on the brink of atomic war.
“Today, one cannot ignore the risk of such a crisis, because there are too many places where an oversight or an erroneous assessment can provoke a serious international conflict. This is happening against an increasingly less stable international background, ”the report says. And further: “We are not standing on the threshold of a third world war. But in the absence of a guarantor of global security (that is, the United States) ... the world is becoming increasingly dangerous. The probability of geopolitical disasters has increased significantly, and this trend will continue. At some point we will probably have a mistake that will lead to confrontation. ” Read this: there will definitely be a mistake, and the Americans will make it "by chance". In addition, the world is "at risk of a large cyber attack." And "the threat comes both from the states (Russia, China, North Korea) and from non-state actors."
So how is it without Rashagate and without Trump's connections with the Kremlin? It turns out that “when special prosecutor Robert Muller tells in detail about the findings of his investigation, the media will focus on Trump’s activities and, possibly, Trump’s personal connections with the Kremlin’s inner circle. Trump's opponents will demand a tough political response (to Russia), and the congress will probably support this, but Trump will not approve. A lot of dirty Kremlin linen will be taken out into the world. Putin may be tempted to answer ... Russian-American relations are openly hostile. And as soon as Muller’s investigation is over, this relationship will have a reason to deteriorate even more. ” Everything is predetermined. Russia is already to blame before the publication of the results of the investigation, which is led by Special Prosecutor Muller. And this is also the risk of an international cataclysm. But no fault of Russia.
Of course, any dramatic events can happen. But it is obvious that the international scenario of 2018 can develop in a positive way. However, American analysts deliberately do not write, although everyone understands that the positive attitude of politicians largely determines the positive development of international relations. After all, business is the embodiment of thought.
American forecasts are nothing more than modeling a crisis situation and pushing the whole world towards it. The US is trying in its own interests to build a new, as stated in the report, “more constructive model of global governance.” And how can it be created without destroying everything that exists now? How to create it without provoking military, economic and moral chaos in the whole world, for the sake of overcoming which people will be ready to do anything to stop this nightmare. It is here that, according to the scenario of the USA itself, the Americans will appear - as rescuers - with their “new constructive model of global governance.”
Will the leaders of different countries be able to resist this hypnosis? Question. But he does not act on Russia.
The opinion expressed in this material is copyright and may not coincide with the opinion of the publisher. ■
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