Overthinking is more common than you could imagine.By the time you have made up your mind the opportunity has already passed. It is not such a bad thing though being over cautious. I think holding Steem is fun for what it allows you to do with it and exiting knowing the possibilities it holds for future price as we don't know.
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i am here year and a half and i still did not grasp my head around what it should, could or will be. but i think nether the creators of it did, so i still have time :D
when i today seen the inception of steem on steem (palnet) :) i was like i get it, but then i don't :D