The European model has done much better than the US model in predicting Irma's path.
Landfall of the main eye in Florida is imminent. Key West is a couple hours out.
The hurricane is more than 200 miles wide. Dodging the main track doesn't mean you are home free.
Naples and Fort Myers will take glancing but still very solid and substantial blows. Wind speeds in excess of 100 miles per hour. With potential for an amazing 15 foot storm surge.
Irma has her eyes set on a direct hit on Tampa Bay. Wind speeds in excess of 110 miles per hour and a substantial storm surge.
Best case result for Florida happens if Irma's predicted track keeps drifting slowly to the West, and the winds continue to slow down. Landfall as CAT3 will be better than landfall as CAT4 or CAT5. The European model has repeatedly indicated this could happen. The track predictions are being revised every three hours. The predicted track keeps drifting West at the rate of a couple miles per hour, every time the predicted track is revised. We need Irma to keep sliding to the West.
Prayers with all in the path and all impacted by Hurricane Irma.
STEEM On!!
DaveB
Good luck to everyone in the path of these storms and i hope everyone gets out safely, Did you know about the massive monsoon rains occuring in south east asia atm? you should look into it as they have been far more devestating than the storms in the US
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years
Wasnt aware until you highlighted. Does look to be worse than Harvey and Irma combined.
yea its been pretty severe. not to take anything away from the victims of harvey and irma but i just havent seen anything about it in mainstream media and only came across it from a friend making a post on facebook. hopefully some good can come from these events and we can find some ways to minimise the damage in the future but for now my thoughts are with everyone whos been affected.
Thank you @davebrewer
I am in Florida and awaiting the arrival of this huge storm. Fortunately, the westward move helped since I live on the east coast and evacuated to the Orlando area. I only pray that people took stock of things and concluded that human life is much more important than stuff. Back in the late 90s, I lost most of my stuff when the house I lived in was struck by a tornado in a hurricane. Two decades later, I have more stuff than I know what to do with.
Stuff is replaceable, human life is not.
Thank you for your continued posting.
Be safe in Orlando, you are probably going to get some winds at Hurricane speed by 2am or 3am tomorrow morning. But not CAT3. Should be CAT1 or maybe even just tropical storm level. Lots of tornadoes popping up all over Florida - although mostly the tornadoes are in North East quadrant of the storm front, as the large storm swirl hits the East coast of Florida.
Thank you @davebrewer
Yes I saw on the news this morning that there was a tornado watch near where I live. Fortunately, it was far enough away from my place that it shouldnt be a problem. Storm surge is what could affect my neighborhood since it is beachside.
The westward shift did move where I am presently outside the cone...this is a nasty one....Atlanta and Birmingham are going to feel the effects of this.
Fortunately, many of the models used in hurricane/typhoon forecasting have inherant and built-in biases. They all rely on persistance. It is this very reason you never see drastic revisions to previously issued forecast tracks from period to period. While position updates are provided every 3 hours, new forecast tracks are issued every 6 hours. My brother and his boat live in Ft. Meyers and I have been watching this storm with dedicated intent. My personal feelings over the last 36 hours have gone unchanged... I believe Irma will continue to drift more westward, to the point of setting her sights more on the Fla. Panhandle. With the absence of dominating steeing currents, the strong meteorological influence of the stronger than anticipated Bermuda Ridge will dictate the movement of this system. Authorities will be slow to drastically modify storm tracks for obvious reasons - the main one being that they have gained the publics undivided attention at this point and wouldn't want to lose face. And with the uncertainties of storm prediction science (even today), this is completely understandable. Wild modifications to any forecast track would tend to have a negative effect on authoritative credibilty. I know this playbook all too well as I've spent over 25 years in this same business. Quick to issue, slow to revise, is a mantra forecasters live by. I'm hoping for the best for the people of Florida and hope I am right on this one. Still, nobody should drop their guard or take any action inconsistent with what local authorities recommend.
Makes sense. Authorities have to have some level of commitment to their forecasts and can't radically change every hour, else they lose credibility and no one takes action on the evacuation notices
Yes, even when they know they might be wrong. Small adjustments to a forecast will eventually catch up with current conditions, more commonly referred to as "Nowcasting." The NWS knows trys their very best to not cry wolf... and they are good at it.
It is better to be safe than sorry . It was good that counties in FL were evactuated . I hope Tampa, FL can make a fast move. You know what was surprising to me , i live in NYC and I saw that tickets for plane rides from FL to NYC cost around $200-300. During this disaster , they were costing $1500. Why is it that people try to benefit from these kinda things instead of trying to help? Sad world
You can thank the anacho-capitalists for cheering price-gouging on! A free and direct market is what they claim brings equlibrium to an otherwise unfair market practice of stable and fixed pricing. I have to disagree with this philosophy, at least on a moral premise.
So if you don't let free market set prices, who do you propose will set prices? Your friends? My friends? How is that moral? Do you understand what happens in socialist countries like Cuba and Venezuela when the power of government is used to intervene in the market and disrupt supply and demand.
I know that during time of crisis it sounds all soft and fuzzy and warm and nice and cuddly to talk about the "mean old free market".
That is exactly the time when the weak minded are found out, and we see lack of logic on display.
Sorry to be a touch harsh, but if you don't believe in free markets, you need to move to your favorite socialist/marxist country.
I hope you have a lot of friends in high places in your new country, so you can get special favors.
Else you are going to find that the free market wasn't so cruel after all.
And just how do you think Cuba and Venuzuela became socialist societies? Via anarchism, that's how! I believe in free markets, I just don't believe that the greedy should take advantage of the needy in times of crisis. You obviously need to try your shoe on the other foot. I'll bet it doesn't fit.
Wow :)
That is terribly sad but unfortunately happens in many scenarios. :(
Too different ways to look at this. At $200, everyone with a casual need for travel would purchase, and supply would be gone. At $1500, the tickets would be purchases by those in most need of travelling, and so the limited supply went to the people with highest need. Pricing is the mechanism that keeps supply and demand in balance, and ensures signals are sent to market when supply and demand get out of balance.
That is generally perceived as a good thing. When prices are allowed to go up, it can bring more supply to an under supplied market.
If you don't have these signals, then you get the empty grocery shelves that you often see in Russia, and Cuba, and Venezuela and other socialist paradises.
There is no one with central authority that can control prices and ensure supply is maintained, like the free market.
Counter balance is time of crisis sometimes price increases are pure profiteering.
Water is probably a better example where if the free market was allowed to set prices the supply after crisis would be handled within 24 hours.
Plane flights are not as easy to bring in huge extra supply. Water it is possible to bring in huge extra supply. Which the market will do if the price is allowed to send appropriate signals.
You make a huge (bad) assumption... that anyone who needs to evacuate can afford a $1,500 air fare.
I appreciate the indepth update on the current situation with Irma. My best friend laid off a few months back down in Tampa and is now back in PA thank god, but my thoughts and prayers are with all those in the path of Irma. I hope she keeps moving west.
Stop going West in last few hours and is now heading more or less straight North. Worst case for Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa
Both european and american have most intelligent technology. Sometime it occurs to be error in the calculation of some factors.
Americans claiming they are underfunded and don't have compute power needed to make best predictions.
Ha, that's not true.
All models and agorithms have some weighting factors built in (a good example would be coriolis force). This is what accounts for many models to be so persistant. If you noticed with Irma, tracks consistently called for recurvature over Florida. Early on, it was up the east coast. As time went on, the same track was constantly adjusted... same orientation, but from a more western perspective. All these tracks are based upon a storms current position. I have spent many years in the Western Pacific and know that any model is to be used as a tool, not as gospel.
Did u read this? https://www.rt.com/usa/402707-shoot-at-hurricane-irma-florida
People wanting to shoot at the hurricane...
I did, and it proves that comedians can be geniuses.
As Ron White said, You Can't Fix Stupid !!!
Lol. Wise man... xD
Even so, three feet of water could still be dumped on the eastern panhandle flooding barrier islands
Panhandle is not going to escape without some surge
this is getting worse and worse i hope everyone remain safe
oh man this is bad for those people! I hope the damage will be small
I pray no one is lost
Too late, several deaths already from Irma
Sad
100 miles wide this is insane the biggest i have ever heard of.
I updated the post. 100 was an error. I should have reported 200 miles wide
Appreciate the update... let's hope it keeps drifting west, even if slowly. It's not good that it makes landfall ANYwhere, but lower population centers would be preferable...
Missing Miami probably reduced total damage and impact
Actually in retrospect, an early landfall (Naples) will help to weaken and diminish the storm for all points north. Bad for a few, good for the rest of the population.
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Thx for sharing
Some times predication may be failed
My prayers go out to them.
switched it up, thx for posting updates
Hurricane Irma i thought it was over :O
Friends in Port Charlotte came home from the shelter today, minimum damage, stores are open. Whew....
Wow :)
it was a very impressive Irma trip....
Amazing...
Success is always for you @davebrewer.....
Nice Post
Thanks for share
I hope all that got hit by this monster are douing well.
God bless America!