I did it again. The fifth winning day in a row is a fact!
06-09-2018 I have started sharing my experience, stories and real plays.
You can find my Intro - posts here:
In Polish [PL]: https://steemit.com/polish/@gentle-gambler/pl-intro
In English [ENG]: https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@gentle-gambler/eng-intro-my-pleasure
Since that day, I have publiced all my bets made before sports events with full description. So far, I have achieved positive rates of return in 5 consecutive playing days.
Somebody can say it's impressive result, I prefer say: it's just possible. You can predict much more than you think. This blog/notebook will be the "Show of maths and volatility coexistence", I am just announcer.
At the end of September I will show for a first time, accumulated statistics. For now - enjoy!
Day 5 summary:
Date: 2018-09-15
England: Premier League (football)
| Event | Market | Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur - Liverpool FC | Asian Handicap (0.25) | 2 | 1.90 | 3,36% | 1-2 | WIN |
Day Yield: +90%
Comment (publiced before match here: https://steemit.com/life/@gentle-gambler/eng-day-5-bets):
Asian Handicap (0.25) means that my bet is divided into two bets, like below:
50% of stake is Asian Handicap (0) - we need team 2 winning to gain. Draw - bookie give this part (50%) of stake back.
50% of stake is Asian Handicap (0.5) - we need team 2 winning to gain. Other results mean loss.
Obviously, Tottenham is absolutely dangerous team, they can score always. But today they will play without their goalkeeper: Hugo Lloris and midifield: Delle Ali. This is difference, Liverpool will start with their best eleven. I assume that two important absences will give an advance to Liverpool and they will not lose. Handicap (0.25) give me attractive asymmetry. Let's see:
Potential results:
Draw: I will lose only half of stake (1.68% of total budget)
Liverpool win: I will win +90%. (but I see that in different way, I am risking 1.68% of budget but my potential payout could be 6,384%. This is +280% potential return on investment. Remeber: I assume that match will end with a draw or Liverpool's winning.)
Comment after match:
As I predicted Spurs without their two essential players had troubles with Liverpool's first eleven. There was high potential gain for accepting limited loses - perfect situation for betting. I will explain this concept in future posts.
GG
@gentle-gambler, I gave you a vote!
If you follow me, I will also follow you in return!
"Eye for eye" worked in antiquity. I see modern verison "Follow for follow" without real interests. I am not sure if that has fundamental value.