I should say this more often: once again nice post from you! I made this notion with a like-minded academic friend: in fact cryptocurrency markets are showing particular strength during these times with less volatility than expected. It seems that "good old" rollercoaster rides require more serious news from the world than South Korea threatening with crypto ban and Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon etc. echoing his warnings. Some could say that stakes are higher than ever (they kinda are), but taken into account this level of institutionalization and widespread ecosystem, it would indeed be a black swan ^2 if all this came down in January 2018. Volatility of a well-diversified crypto portfolio today seems like a high beta stock anymore. I discussed this more in my blog: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@thomastaussi/south-korean-crypto-ban-plans-make-no-brakes-for-the-crypto-train
Myself I represent traditional academic world of accounting and finance and currently am working on risk management theories. For years I have had a side interest in Austrian School of Economics, subjective value and entrepreneurial theories. Some Scandinavian scholars are advanced in an idea called entrepreneurial judgment, which can be used to explain confidence and mentality of many crypto investors: reflecting experiences and intuition in combining recent news gives subjective insight that can lead to completely different evaluation of uncertain future than what is perceived by investors that follow the rules of stock investing. Even if admitting the existence of a speculative bubble, we still see very little analytical professionals talking about relevant references like total ecosystem-wide market caps what you mentioned.
Ps. I like your Scandinavian libertarian theme. Something rare in the Nordics :)
Btw, greetings from Göteborg! (On a seminar trip there, tomorrow back to Helsinki)
Have a relaxing weekend and then keep on rocking!
Hey! Thank you for your thoughts and kind words! Very interesting. I gave you a follow and an upvote :) @thomastaussi