From the perspective of the historical record, your assessment and predictions are spot on. However, tech advance changes the actions and reactions of variables in these events. Just as agriculture enabled the survival of human societies after the Younger Dryas event that decimated the natural environment and extinguished 77 genera of megafauna that were integral to human survival, and the ~7k years of rapid sea level rise that followed leaving the former coasts ~100m underwater, decentralization of the means of production of modern tools and architecture changes the potential outcome of democide.
By enabling networks of poorly capitalized individuals and communities to themselves produce necessities and the blessings of civilization, the power of oligarchs to starve and render defenseless their herds and facilitate their slaughter is [Edit:eliminatedmitigated]. I submit that this nascent ability of society to withstand supply line disruption controlled by centralized hierarchies is the trigger for the incipient democide being so rapidly executed. The speed at which the Overton window has been rammed away from Western Civilized values and practices, eliminating substantial forthright debate of policy, the scientific method, education, industrial production, healthy food, and medical care with political indoctrination and propaganda, censorship, offshoring industrial capacity, disruption of high trust societies with unrelated cultural immigrants, hyperprocessed toxic slop, and MAID (medical assistance in dying) instead of healing, demonstrates the rapidity of dispersal and development of decentralized means of production that has the potential to eliminate parasitic oligarchies if unchecked, and the desperation of those parasitic sybarites to prevent being defunded.
If decentralization overcomes centralization, the eugenics crowd will never again have the economic means to give depopulation another go. Once the colonization of habitat off Earth begins, humanity will become incapable of being herded and driven into slaughter geographically. Just as was agriculture, decentralization is a clinal boundary that will radically alter the capacity of society to withstand cataclysm permanently.
Thanks!