Yeah, Mike writes and take the pics ... and this combination has worked for years!
But warm winter in Lisbon .. NOPE! It was so freakin' cold ... ALWAYS! Valencia is a much better choice for winter in Europe! Or Sicily :)
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I guess the trick would be to go as far South West as possible. Lagos for example. There's a lot of warm draft coming from the ocean. At least, looking at a heat map of Europe, that's what my research found...
Yes, the further south the better.