Nice analysis. I think Litecoin is in a range right now until price breaks $180 (buyers at $180) on the downside and $240 (sellers at $240) on the upside. I also have long term targets of $280 and $320, but will need help from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin needs to absorb the stacks of sell orders at $11000 and $11400 (red circles) and eventually break daily supply at $12000 first.