In this report I cover the bond markets in detail and show the viewers what to look for in terms of US treasury yields and what rising rates could mean for the financial system and the economy.
In this report I cover the bond markets in detail and show the viewers what to look for in terms of US treasury yields and what rising rates could mean for the financial system and the economy.
Thank you maneco64 great post! i like looking at charts from times past as well, they can tell you a lot about the current state of affairs especially in our own life times, as they are very handy to produce for other more modern generations to believe what you are trying to tell them like the following! in 1971 the introduction of decimalization in the uk reduced the purchasing power of the pound sterling by 92% by 2015, resulting in it being only worth 7.8 penny's, before that we had 240 pennys to the pound! which was from the original anglo saxon system starting 1400 yrs ago, im still waiting for my other 140 pennys they stole from me back!
Yes, watch gov bonds! Price collapse, soaring yields & central banks who now hold a lot of them may rip the global financial system & its fiat currencies to shreds. Hard assets held without debt will then be the only things of value. As in ALL hyperinflationary scarenios people rush to buy things of value with any fiat currency they have.
There's been massive inflation in asset prices over the last ten years, but prices of most basic things reflected in gov inflation data haven't risen much. The rich have gotten richer, but the poor have seen little change & wages barely rising. How will inflation & hyperinflation begin at this level of people's daily livelihood? Many are in debt with mortgages, car loans, student loans, credit cards, etc. Rising prices for food & daily necessities would spell disaster for many!
Perhaps the mechanism will work something like this: Many countries import more than they export & have massive gov debt (USA, UK, most of EU,...). Collapse in their bond markets will likely come with a collapse in their currencies - investers pull out of indebted states which cannot repay their debts. Currency collapse means higher prices for imports. Food imports in particular would then hit poor, indebted consumers with massive price rises.
Along with this scarenio we must consider the boom in global agricultural production over recent decades. Much of this was due to use of chemical fertilisers, mechanisation, herbicides, pesticides, and more recently GMO crops. This all brought low food prices & plentiful supplies, even if food quality has generally deteriorated. However, agricultural land quality has deteriorated too, often requiring yet more chemicals to grow the same crops. Along with climate change (which does occur, whether one believes the political rhetoric or not), there's now great risk for agricultural production disasters which could cause food prices to soar. War is another risk.
At present rising inflation & interest rates, or future perception of such, seem to boost fiat currency FX vs other fiat currencies. But there's a limit where that breaks down, and a currency is ditched. Other correlations like risk-off fiat ¥en rising along with gold (also risk-off) will breakdown because gold is solid value whereas ¥en is backed by a Japan deep in gov debt!
We're approaching a time of massive unravelling of QEeer financial insanity. It will probably begin with the US bond market and spread to the UK, EU, Japan...
Meanwhile, China and Russia are more prepared for a switch to a gold-backed financial system set up to trade for oil & other commodities. In this switch, a crypto-currency system backed by gold &/or other commodities like oil may be used for payments. I think such a commodity-backed crypto-currency system is already being developed. Such a crypto-currency linked to real stuff would not be fiat, but rather limited to real production of goods. Most cryptos trading, or crashing, these days are not likely to survive more than a few years. Bitcoin can be totally eclipsed, sidelined, like an old "Puffing Billy" shunted onto a dead-end sidetrack!
As in all human revolutions, things turn upside-down, including pockets... & most don't understand what's going on until a new view of things emerges, slowly becomes recognised & adjusted to. Bon voyage! This is where Noah is... No, Aaaggghhh!!! casting off here
Central banks will not allow the bond market to crash, they will conjure $$$ from thin air, and buy, buy, buy. With such historic manipulation, its unclear what will happen
@tgo As I said the QE trick worked once because investors trusted that the Central Banks were doing the right thing and would eventually be able to unwind the whole scheme but if they can't and then start printing more confetti to keep rates low investors will be spooked confidence in paper will evaporate very quickly.