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RE: STEEM/BTC Fundamental Analysis #1: Why is the price tanking?

in #money8 years ago (edited)

Okay, if you think the intention was never for there to be demand for SBD then what happens once a million people are stuck with SBD that no one wants to accept?

I'm talking about currency not store of value for day traders. If I need to buy something with whatever I earn from Steemit then I have to create demand for SBD otherwise it's a game of hot potato which content producers are set to lose.

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Right now the value of SBD is backed by the value of Steem, not what the SBD itself can buy in the 'real world'. SBD has value because users can get USD from them by converting to Steem. If someone wants to get USD for their SBD, they would likely convert it to Steem, convert the Steem to BTC, then the BTC to USD.

The scenario that would cause SBD to have no value, is if Steem had no value (or not enough value to back up the amount of SBD in circulation). If there was no way to provide enough Steem to convert SBD into the necessary dollars worth needed to cash out, then the whole system falls apart. Steem is designed with this in mind, and aims to have only a 5% ratio of SBD debt to the current value of Steem. That way, even with a fairly large market drop the system can still sustain itself and produce enough Steem for the SBD holders to get their dollars back out.

That's not my point. My point is if you have $100,000 in SBD but no one wants to buy your SBD then you're stuck. You convert your SBD to Steem? Okay so now you're dumping Steem and the price goes down for everyone which means your future SBD payments also go down if you've powered down or if you're blogging.

So I guess you're not getting my point. The more people have to convert to Steem from SBD, the less SBD people get from blogging or from their Steem. That means you can look forward to lower amounts in fiat as the price of Steem collapses from bloggers cashing out by selling SBD to get Steem to dump Steem. Ideally it would be better if people would just buy the SBD and use the SBD as a currency, not because Steem is primarily about trying to be a currency but because if there is no demand for SBD then why payout in SBD at all? Just payout in Steem because at least there is demand for Steem for now.

If you are really smart you'll hold your SBD just in case the price of Steem collapses because then when you convert you can get more Steem Power the lower the price of Steem gets.

The issue is the market cap for Steem is what determines what bloggers get paid. As more bloggers join and if the market cap tanks because bloggers have to sell Steem faster than anyone can buy it, then the payouts could also decrease until at some point an equilibrium is reached but this could be extremely volatile and avoidable