Hey Greg, one of the other items I am following is UST being held by the Fed. As of 8/2 it shows 2,465,195M being held which is a very significant increase since the beginning of the year. I have not done the full spreadsheet on this so this part of what I will say next is not quotable. It appears that the primary buyer of all new treasuries being issued by the Treasury is the Fed, which means the rally in bonds is being driven by an 'expansion' of the Fed balance sheet. How in the heck can they say they want to normalize if they are expanding? Go figure! Anyways, I went short at 2490 so I am feeling no pain. I am expecting a healthy pull-back to 2100 before we get a bounce, but that is IMHO as we may get another PPT rescue.
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