Bitcoin could very soon be upgraded to support Segregated Witness (SegWit). On July 17th, mining pools were able to begin signaling their support for BIP 91 until August 1st. To successfully signal, miners have to signal their support using "bit 4" in the block header in 269 blocks out of 336 block periods.
The next 336 block period ends in 37 blocks from the time I'm posting this. We are on pace to have over the 269 blocks needed for BIP 91 support.
How long will that take?
Each block takes roughly 10 minutes, so we could have a successful BIP 91 signal in about 5 to 6 hours.Tracking the blocks
https://www.xbt.eu/
What does this mean?
If we get a successful signal in the next couple of hours, then it would be activated 2 weeks later. We would then go relatively drama free until November 1st, when we would look to miners for a decision on a 2MB Hard Fork. Here is a visual chart from Coindesk:
How does this impact Bitcoin price?
We have had a big run up since July 16th from $1,800 to over $2,600 today. It's possible the BIP 91 support signal is already baked into the price. Or, it may mean we finally get the push to take Bitcoin above $3k.When bitcoin moves, it seems to take most alt coins like Steem with it. It is very possible that we could see Steem above $2 this week.
How am I trading this today?
- I bought a little over $100k of bitcoin via GBTC a few hours ago.
- GBTC is a fund where each share represents 0.093 bitcoin per share. See my post to read more about GBTC. GBTC is available through Fidelity and others.
- Bitcoin went up over 40% since the low this week, while GBTC only went up about 11%. There is still a significant premium with GBTC, but I'm betting on BIP 91 going through today while the market is closed. I'm hoping to wake up tomorrow to GBTC over $450 per share.
- In my non-retirement account, I bought more Ether and Steem.
What happens if my trade works out?
Since it's part of my retirement account, probably no lambos anytime soon. I'll probably use it for a nice set of dentures one day.
How are you trading BIP 91?
Do you think BIP 91 goes through today?
I'm buying in little by little. But you've really gone for it!
Seemed like a good opportunity. Still holding today, may give it a day or two to see if Bitcoin tries to cross 3k again.
a new set of dentures, now thats a turn-on !
Who knows...maybe a matching set for the wife!
Nah, use your gums on each other, much more sensual.
Nice strategy!
Why are you not buying directly? Is that because some US tax laws with retirement accounts?
I think we'll see 5k btc within 18months, the real question is if this was the last dip before the next peak.
At least with steem we're able to mine with our keyboards, so everyone can add to their investments!
I have some directly....but my crypto portfolio isn't that high in value. I bought via GBTC because it's through my retirement account, so no tax and have much more money in there to play with.
Makes sense, just finished reading your post about gbtc. No tax sound nice, should be worth the premiums long term I guess.
Premium should go to 0 in the long long term once ETFs and other investment vehicles get approved. It's high right now because of low or no competition.
Thanks for the details. I have checked and we need 12 blocks in the next 27 blocks for a successful BIP91 lock in. Looks like its on. That should give us a breather until the next round in November!
Down to 10 now...so potentially less than 2 hours from now!
Crypto is going up! I'm getting as much I can.
Balls of steel! #respect
Ali G was such a great character for Sacha Baron Cohen. I remember him interviewing legit politicians and wondering how the hell he got them to agree to come on his show.
Yeah, that guy is hilarious. Haven't seen much new stuff from him lately. Maybe he has lost the element of surprise now that he is so famous.
Gold-plated dentures. Is it possible to buy cryptocurrencies in a retirement portfolio? IRA or 401k?
Either one if you have Fidelity. Not sure which other ones offer it.
Wow, thank you! I had no idea. One of my 401ks is with Fidelity. I need to consolidate them into 1 or 2. I think Fidelity is going to be one of the winners.
No problem! Just have to watch the GBTC premium.
Rich guy @financialcritic 👍
I lost most of my $300 worth bitcoin and don't seem to recover. Haha! Broke as hell!
How did you lose it?
I lost all my coins at loss to join the Master Node movement (SYNX & NRS). I joined at the wrong time and lost a lot of value in MN coins too. Bad bad moves. Should have stayed with small coins till recovery.
Some good moves im still trying to figure out what side of the fence to pick but pretty well covered in both cases for now.
Yeah, we are in a little bit of no man's land. But seems like bitcoin is just calming down for a little bit before the next run.
Wish you a very successful trade!
Thanks!
wow, good move! I hope this weekend drops again to buy the final bunch of coins
Not sure if it would drop again this weekend. If BIP 91 passes, then we are all set until the November 1st drama.
maybe you're right, this volatility drives me crazy! I guess crypto trading should be restricted to people with hearth problems :-)
that takes a lot of balls to invest that much because of the uncertainty in the market right now, what price did you buy at, and what price do you plan on selling it at?
Bought in between 380 and 390. Sell price will depend on what Bitcoin does tonight. Because there is a premium baked into GBTC price, it's doesn't directly follow bitcoin. But, I'm hoping for 450 or so.
i wish you the best profits!
I am personally holding altcoins like Ethereum, Waves, Steem, and a few others to ride out the Bitcoin Scaling Storm. Also, I am investing in an ICO while the dust settles. Check out my article on the Rivetz ICO if you are interested.
LOL...was actually just reading and commenting on it.
honestly didn't understand the whole August 1 BTC hardfor thing. You're post made it a little more understandable. Thank you!
tnks
Np!
Wow... voted.
Nice investment! Bitcoin is flying today
Thanks, I hope it translates to GBTC when the market opens
Wow what a bold move. I'm interested to see the result pls keep us updated.
Thanks, will do!
Wow, you are rich!
Just old and have worked for a while!
Hope it pays out for you lol
Thanks!
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GBTC not at $450...just yet. No worries, it will get there very soon. Also, I don't know if you are aware, there is another financial instrument by the ticker: BTSC which also gives you BTC exposure however right now it's only $.08/share.
Interesting and brave. I hope it works out for you. I wouldnt say its the most prudent or conservative strategy LOL, but hey I was young once a long time ago so I get it lol. I followed :)
Hope everything goes according to plan for you, it would be a very nice outcome.
That's a whole lot of money. But you're not a financialcritic for nothing so this is likely a very profitable move. Good luck! And you saved me from wondering when the next drama would be. Must prepare for Nov 1 :D
It's a risk, but stocks seem a little inflated...and I think we'll get over the $3k bitcoin hurdle soon.
Yeah it's looking more and more like it. I'm bracing for the period before Nov 1 though in case it would give another opportunity to buy crypto at a lower price so thank you for mentioning that.
@financialcritic You don't have to brag about it lol. Meanwhile 90% of the readers are broke as fuck.
LOL...it's via my retirement account. If you max out your 401k you can have over 100k in your retirement in less than 5 years of working.
Wow that sounds high, no wonder the USA is the most broke country in the world hahaha.
The financial Ponzi is a joke, luckily there's Bitcoin now!
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