Starting balance: $50,274
Current balance: $50,049
-$225 -1%
Current Allocations:
Btc: 36.24 = 41%
Eth: 950 = 23%
Cash: $17,985 = 36%
Summary of Trades since last update:
eth/btc
buy
50 @.0195
50 @ 0.01925
50 @ 0.019
200 @ 0.0201
300 @ 0.02
I haven't updated this in a while because markets have been moving slow here in the dog days of summer. For the month the portfolio is -1% while bitcoin is -8.1% and ETH is +1.05%. Overall, this portfolio is beating the market at this point.
ETH is now showing signs of life so I swapped some BTC for ETH over the past couple of days. Also ETC has been trending down. The hard fork may have been messy, but it looks like ETH could pull away from it.
The downtrend line in ETHBTC has broken and the 50dma is holding for now. We have a cluster of resistance around 0.021 - 0.023, so it may be hard to break this level.
The downtrend line in ETHUSD also failed, giving more reason to accumulate a bit more ETH. However, resitance around $12.50 and further resistance around $15.00 will be a tough nut to crack. The 200 dma seems to be holding well though and it may be key to watch here. Right now ETH could go either way, although leaning a bit bullish.
BTC is still mired in between the downward sloping upper trend-line and the upward sloping lower trend-line, which also coincides roughly with the 50 dma to the top and the 200 dma to the bottom. I expect we will see some movement this fall, leaning toward the bullish side.
The overall uptrend in the crypto space is holding, at least for now.
The alts have bounced off the up-trend line, forming a triangle. Leaning bullish for now.
Bitcoin dominance is still looking sick. This goes along with my thesis that the next major adoption-level move in the markets will see the best projects in the alt-space dominate. Time will tell.
Archives
08/01/16
08/03/16
08/05/16
08/08/16
08/09/16
08/10/16
08/12/16
08/17/16
Disclaimer: This is not advice of any kind. I am merely posting a track record and commentary of my personal portfolio.
Well done, I am holding some ETH/EUR as well. I am thinking that we might be starting elliott wave 3 from the all time low (Wave 1 and 2 finished).
You may be correct. The most powerful wave may be yet to come.
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Do you think these markets are ripe enough to be subject to technical analysis? In my eyes cryptos are mostly news driven, have little measurable fundamentals and are extremely difficult to asses in any meaningful way. I maybe wrong though...
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@maarnio/bitcoin-technical-analysis
These are some of the cleanest wave counts that I have seen in Bitcoin.
There is also a clear 34 week cycle in Bitcoin:
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2016/04/01/Major-Cycle-Influence-Nears-for-AUDUSD.html
I agree with maarnio, crypto markets seem to conform a bit better to technical analysis than legacy markets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, although there is not a huge difference on a longer term time frame.
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