Are you basing this analysis more heavily on the micro or macro factors of this investment? You mention your micro predictions above, but I'm curious if you're also factoring in the macro side of the investment. With the large decline of oil prices over the past few years it appears to have a higher chance of bouncing back than continuing to slide. Do you agree, or were you not factoring that into your investment?
Good luck with the investment, and I hope it turns out well for you!
I did mention some macro analysis. The oil price chart above shows that the oil price will go up. Even the prediction of the world bank (most negative prediction) shows an increase of the oil price for the future. If the company is ready to drill the price will probably be higher than at this moment and even with lower prices than now (like $30-10) this company's oil fields are still profitable. Also, a share of a micro-cap oil explorer is less affected by the oil price and more effected by its explorations.