Before I begin this article, let me say this. At the present time there appears to be a heavy dose of irrational exuberance associated with this stock market however, that does not mean that a crash or a meltdown is going to happen tomorrow. With that said, let's put a few things into perspective.
For those of us that lived through the 2008 stock market crash and housing meltdown, we are beyond any doubt hearing many of the same commitments being made by market participants, consumers, homebuilders, and the mainstream financial pundits today.
The loudest echo that I hear making it to the mainstream is home builder sentiment, which if you recall right at the top of the housing bubble was in a state of obvious irrational exuberance. Right at the top of the housing bubble, when everyone was gleeful that homebuilder sentiment was skyrocketing, the bubble burst. Consumer confidence was also climbing right at the top of the 2008 bubble. Moreover, again right at the top of the 2008 market crash, consumer credit, and subsequent consumer debt, was eerily familiar to what we are seeing today.
The rise of cryptocurrency, the "in our face," deliberate suppression of the price action of gold and silver by the major banks by using derivatives (many have been caught red handed doing this) are also in my view big tells that we may indeed be close to yet another meltdown in the capital markets.
Gregory Mannarino
Just about everything we know except precious metals seem to be inflated. For the past month everything has been so difficult to predict or understand. It makes it very difficult to choose what directions you should follow, with that being said i am staying with metals and crypto.
Thanks for the great article Greg. happy steeming. Resteemed.
I agree! Shame that I cant make some more of my friends and family understand this situation clearly.
I am certainly the black sheep at this moment in time.
Although I wish the day would come that I could have some justification in my opinions I also fear it because many people whom I know and love will find themselves in the most awful of situations possible.
Welcome to the club. I think your story is happening to a lot of us who have woken up.
My family is the same way they think that $100.00 bill is worth more anything. I hear it all the time "why would i want to buy 5oz of silver with my $100.00 bill." They just dont get it.
Wait until they Federal Reserve (Debt) Notes crash and they turn in their 100 dollar bills to the bank for a 1 dollar coin... Not a silver or gold coin, but just plain old Common Coinage... I think Pocket Change will increase 100 fold in buying power when the Fiat Dollar crashes... Pocket Change...
Haha - its crazy right, there is no downside to buying silver. It can't go down below production costs.....it has to go up when the stock market turns, The stock market is at an all time high. The stock market has to turn - its a cycle - and silver has to go up. Because its a cycle - Silver has to go higher than $50 - it actually needs to go higher than $110 in the 80's....no downside
NONE
It woyld be very nice to see $110.00. Problem is i dont think there would be much left to buy. Cause once it starts going up people are going to sworm to it.
Yeah if the jump was that rapid the price would just hit no offer because hardly anybody would be selling and we would have to wait it out until silver can be revalued. But hey, at least you have some in your hand!
Silver stackers are the most patient people on the planet!!!
We have no choice. You are right though, we will wait it out.
Aluminum horders have you beat. They're waiting for an entire infrastructurual collapse, followed by a scavenging draught. Only then shall they part with their bars.
They are also chess players. Thinking multiple steps ahead.
Think of it as an insurance policy if anything. Every year you spend money on multiple policies and if nothing happens it's gone. You have no gain and you have to come up with the same amount for next years policy. Precious metals are insurance on your savings/wealth. The thing is you can cash out on every dime that you put in if needed. If things happen like people are saying they will then you could have a big payday too. I don't see a downside to owning the metals at nearly the cost of production....
Most people need to feel comfortable with the mass consensus on just about anything. It's difficult being a prophet around people you care about, until they hear it from someone else, the issue is hidden in plain sight.
When the SHTF they will probably say 'don't say I told you so'
I also get frustrated by my family and the constant 'rolling of eyes'. Sod it, you can't always open a closed mind!!!
Next time you go shopping with the family, price eveything they buy in silver oz. That for sure will get you some eye rolling. My wife doesn't really like to spend money around me cause she knows that i am going to price it in silver
That's funny Ray!!! Yep I'd get seriously beat up for doing that!!!
Add me to that list as well. My family enjoys cognitive disenance and chooses not to accept the truth. sigh At least some of us see whats going on. I too am a black sheep for spreading truth.
Ditto that. "Picking tops and bottoms is the toughest job on Wall Street".
Right on, I'm in the same situation, family and friends think I'm losing it. In most cases I would be happy to tell them I told you so when this takes place, but this will be too sad a situation to rub it in!
Most everyone I know is clueless. I live in the bubble that is called Naples, FL. Everything seems great hear. The streets are full of luxury cars. High end restaurants are full. The low end of new construction hear is $500K.... So when I talk to friends and family about what is coming they just look at me like i'm crazy..... I stopped talking after the crash in 2008. The housing bust that was coming back then was just as obvious. Nobody will event admit that I warned them.... Even those that last their @$$.... I know people that are starting to flip houses now late in the game and i just smile and think. I like that house, maybe I'll pick that one up when it forecloses...
Same here - I've gone all in with silver and crypto - now just sit and wait.......you can feel it in the air "winds of change!"
winds of change :) what a great song. I have been hearing it in my mind for sometime now. Working on the crypto thing I may buy more gold and silver too.
Thats the coming transfer of wealth that you are feeling.
latest Maloney vid is scary
more reasons to keep buying physical silver (and some cryptos) ! Silver is on sale now... the longer it is supressed , the more I can accumulate!
I havent seen it yet. what is the title and date that it came out?
Mike Maloney rules! His youtube videos on the secrets of money are the best around!!!
Thank you carl for posting this great video. Mike is awesome
Can you post a link?
got it
right now the amount of money moving in to the stock market is incredible. the vast majority is in tech. so they will drive it higher and higher until everyone is ALL IN. then POP...but it may be a while. So ride it while you can.
Congratulations @marketreport!
Your post was mentioned in my hit parade in the following category:
What I want someone to answer is how are mining and metals stock funds going to fare in all of this????? I have some money in them. I cannot transfer that money to gold or silver otherwise I would. If the market has a crash or large correction and metals go up, how would the mining stock funds do?????
Given your assumption that the metals go up I would say your fine especially if you can handle the shortterm volatility, even if the miningshares might do a initial pullback/crash (not saying they will, just saying it could) you own shares of real companies that will make a lot of money if the gold they are sitting on goes up as assumed. Personally Im prepared for both a scenario like 2008 (where everything went down, inclusive miningshares, gold, silver before they skyrocketed) and another scenario where there is no crash or bigger correction and the miningshares explodes higher from the base we are building here, tough times out there right now, most guys that say they know what is gonna happen are either product sellers or liers. Also worth pointing out all miningshares are not the same, different risk in different projects, exploration companies, optionality plays, producers have all different kind of potential and risks, also geopolitical risk, costrising enviroments and other things might be wise to have in mind. Full disclosure I am heavily invested in precious metal shares :)
seams like a crap shoot I am invested in metals too. Smart to do so. Thanks
I invest in miningshares and physical metals for 2 different reasons, miningshares for making $$$ and physical foremost for security & insurance. Not much beating the feeling of holding physical Au & Ag in your hand but I also want the leverage to the upside that miningshares provide. As a sidenote to people that has very limited experience in the mining business it is very volatile and not for everyone, I follow markets daily, for most people I would probably recommend to buy a few of the streamers, Franco-nevada, Wheaton Precious Metal (former Silver Wheaton) & Sandstorm gold. Those are a lot safer plays with less costs, more diversification and huge margins compared to a single mine that has all kind of risks to it.
When metals go up minning will go up as well.
That was what I thought too but was not certain.
Yeah also a subject that I am interested in knowing!
Home prices need to crash. Between homes and rent, prices are getting out of control.
Greg do you think a bigger pull back should be in place for the cryptos?
Good stuff yet again Gregory! Quickly, you seem to have deviated from your stock pick format over on your other web site and your calls/puts seem off?? just curious whats happening there?
Me seeking the answer as well. Answer with a NO in it is enough to give us nightmares.
It's like de je vous, people are over bidding for houses again in the area I live...just like 2007, 2008. Glad I sold a few months ago and renting now.
Hi Greg. Do you think the stock market is in a true bubble or is it a result of hyperinflation? Love your posts you're really on target with your short term predictions. Keep sharing your insights.
Like 2008 except this time the bond bubble (the largest of all) is going to pop too. Gon' be ugly.
Just like 2008... In Florida house value are way up, construction is everywhere, hwy, schools, apartments, houses. Companies are playing with numbers in computers to make it seem like they are selling more than they are to keep getting bonuses. People are loosing jobs the one who got jobs are severely over worked.
The thing is that in 2008 people, including myself, were ignorant and the crash came as a huge surprise. Now people should be warned and cautious , but still you see this strange "lemming" like behavior of people thinking everything is wonderful, ignoring the warning of 2008. This is mind boggling to me!
Bond bubble, housing bubble, student loan and credit card debt in the US have EACH surpassed $1 trillion. Precious metals are a great buy right now - thanks for your knowledge Greg.
I've been worried about this. My wife and I bought our home two years ago and it is has appreciated so much that I'm beginning to wonder when will be the right time to take advantage of it.
Also you are the second person who has called out the forced devaluation of gold and silver. I remember an article some time two years ago that said that Silver could hit $700 an oz. Really starts to make me wonder how close we are. Inevitable I think it is, just a matter of when.
I am saddened to suggest the price of gold and silver will go down further after this bump in price. After that I think it's over and the price will skyrocket.
may the silver surfer arrive! bananarama!!!
"bananarama!!!"
Aren't they a UK 80's girl band!!!
its what Philip J. Fry says, when he doesnt know what to say.
Greg, I'm not hearing the same as 2008 on the street. Maybe it is me and my network/perspective has changed. In 2008 I was hearing how everyone was flipping houses to make a quick buck. Today I'm seeing houses in my area staying on the market for months/years. Some are moving but the prices are not great. I think there is some time to go here before we get to the top. Trigger might be somewhere else this time though. I'm in the northeast.
Where I live Homes are selling fast. People cannot keep them for more than a week
As always, thank you for the great information Greg! if any of you reading are into video games or photography Please have a look at my blog on steemit, i am new. Thanks!
Hi Greg, keep up the phenomenal work as usual. I do not trade but I follow you often as i'm a fairly young guy (30) that likes to know what's going on and stay informed. I just wrote a post this weekend about how subprime mortgage lending is back as well. Not good!
https://steemit.com/subprime/@aaagent/subprime-mortgage-lending-is-back-not-good
http://amp.usatoday.com/story/101742150
Wow Rue21 is filing bankrupcy
Awesome post. Things are certainly heating up. Prepare! prepare!
Everytime they say "It's different this time" and "Stocks can only go up!"
We have been hearing them for a long time. As you know it"s imminent. The question remains.. How long will this BS go on.
2404 S&P held so far as resistance two times!! If holds should see a 15 to 20 percent correction. Your thoughts Gregory
On Fox Business this morning they actually tried to make a case for the cost of avocado toast being the reason that young college grads are not buying homes.
I live between Denver and Boulder, Colorado. The housing market is absolutely INSANE around here. There are so few houses for sale for the demand that we routinely receive letters in the mail asking if we'd like to sell our house - even though it's not on the market! It's nice to see the value of our house rise, but it's beginning to get ridiculous!
I just moved from Boulder in October.
To put Colorado's market in line with other places, it's almost exactly the same rent prices that I pay here in Honolulu.
If there's a correction coming anywhere, I expect Colorado to be slapped hard in the coming years. It's why I choose to rent in this time of crazy bubbles instead.
I miss them mountains, but never really loved the snow, so the beach was extra nice this whole last 75° winter.
Snorkeling over shovels! FTW!
Good for you!
I love it here also, but would prefer to give up the snow shovel for a beach in Hawaii!
;)
A bit of advice before you do.
A 12oz box of cereal goes for $3-$6 depending on the brands, including generics. A bag of granola is $7 and honey is like gold here..lol
My advice before one way ticketing it like I did, is to find land cheap on the big island, and bring your seeds and gardening skills. ;)
LOL!! It sounds like the time I visited Barrow, Alaska and a 24 oz plastic can of ground coffee cost over $20! My wife is actually from Hawaii (Oaho) and I've heard many of the the stories of isolated island life. But even $7 granola sounds pretty good when there's 14 inches of snow on the ground and the temp is -10 !
Greg, I have been following you for a good number of years and I appreciate the realistic analysis. The concern I have with the current debt market is the cracks that are showing ie: Home Capital Group in Canada. The real estate market is over priced and workers are under paid. Fear appears to be rearing it's ugly head. Fear of not ever being able to afford the market, fear of not being able to maintain the payments once in and what I think will collapse it. Fear of not getting out before it collapses.
Bubble is to big........hard to compare with the past......we are in a new era with gold silver manipulation.....etc.....it will be interestimg how this will play out
Thnx Greg. Your articles are always informing. Keep up the good work.
Hello @marketreport
Gregory and Others,
My charting see's a bigger Crash then 2008/09 before the year is done.
Silver bullion Spot will Drop to $6.60
Gold bullion Spot will Drop to $725
When this happens BTC will go to $3000
STEEMDOLLARS $100
So, What price do you think prices will go to?
Need to Sell your Home?
https://steemit.com/realestate/@healthiswealth/want-a-bidding-war-on-your-home
In the 2008 crisis I was protected by the fact that I had no money (so had nothing to lose!)
Whilst my personal circumstances have now changed, I've been wise enough to listen to the likes of Greg, Mike Maloney, Robert Kiyosaki, David Morgan etc etc...I'm therefore confident that, through diversification, I have most bases covered. ....bar having an underground nuclear bunker!!!!
Do you think that the majority of the altcoins are in a bubble?
Their marketcaps have gone too high too fast.
I don't think so. If I talk to colleges/friends, no one owns BTC. I don't see a bubble. Imagine, if those guys start buying.
Master Gregory,
You mention a meltdown in the "Capital Markets". I do not know what specific markets are in that grouping, but in my micro-thinking world, there is no market in the world that is safe. If meltdown means people are deciding to take their money and get out of the game, they must agree with me. Where do you suppose they will go to avoid all counter-party risks? Hmmm?
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I don't think we are close enough to a crash yet.
Certainly we look like we might be heading that way. IMO the best way to tell we are in trouble is when the FDIC starts closing a lot of banks.
Keep an eye on this list.
https://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Yes the process is certainly accelerating. People are awashed with money willing to bet on just anything. Did I say bubble in its final stages?