Dear Steemit friends,
Bitcoin has enjoyed a nice run from $6000 to over $8000 in the last 2 - 3 weeks. I think it has relieved some of the pain caused by so many repeated price drops we have seen already in 2018. I hope that the recent rally continues at least long enough to break above $10000, woudn't that be nice? However, hopes and expectations differ in this instance.
Over the next couple of months, I expectations bitcoin to trend down. The reasons for these expectations are as follows. First, the 14-day RSI has reached an oversold level (see chart below). During 2018, every time RSI has touched oversold area, bitcoin price dropped significantly. Even if we don't see a significant drop this time, I expect a downward momentum.
Second, bitcoin has reached at couple of resistance lines, including the 200-day moving average and upper boundary of the pennant formation. We all want to see the next bull market in bitcoin, however, as long as the price is below 200-day moving average, we cannot confidently call a bull market.
What do you guys see on the bitcoin chart? Share your opinion in the comments, and I will be glad to upvote the meaningful ones.
Your analysis makes sense, but let's see of the hopes win against expectations.
Daily transaction volume (dtv) is important to look at also. It’s correlated with price and has gone from 50k to 200k over the the previous five years. This kind of growth rate is amazing when considering btc has no debt and low risk of dishonest management.
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