Commodities were never so cheap compared to US stocks since 1971

penguinpablo (78)in #money • 7 years ago

The prices of commodities (oil, gas, gold and silver, among others) have never been so low compared to US stocks since 1971. Due to the monetary policy of central banks, stocks and bonds began to rise, but due to weak economic growth, prices of important commodities like oil have been under pressure over the last couple of years. Meanwhile gold and silver are also struggling to break the downward trend of recent years.

In relation to the S&P500, the GSCI commodity index is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years.

The chart above outlines the valuation of the GSCI commodity index relative to the S&P500 stock index. The GSCI commodity index comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. Markets usually evolve from one extreme to another. From cheap commodities to expensive commodities. Just look at the rally from 1999 to 2008.

As an investor you do not often get an opportunity to buy assets at the lowest price of the past 5 decades.

Stocks vs Commodities

Based on this comparison, we can conclude commodities are currently relatively inexpensive, or US stocks are currently overvalued. Or both. Either way, history teaches us that extreme valuation like this never last forever. While it's not a good timing indicator it does show that this ratio will need to regress back to the mean. The last time stocks were relatively expensive compared to commodities was during the dotcom bubble of the late nineties. We know that didn't end very well for the stock markets...

Are stocks overvalued?

Today, US stock markets are at record levels again, while the economy is still recovering from the previous crisis. Shares are valued as if companies are going to make even more profits in the future, while meanwhile US jobs growth is slowing down and the expansion of the world's largest economy remains stuck around the 1% level.

So the big question is what justifies the high stock prices of today?

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7 years ago in #money by penguinpablo (78)

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wwamd (53) 7 years ago (edited)

Stocks are overvalued because those with huge amounts of capital are putting it into the market for short term gains. Commodities is a longer term asset. Like gold and silver it is more of a hedge against more risky investments and as a store of value versus a weak dollar. Another reason the commodities are so undervalued is due to the comex and the creation of fake commodities like paper silver that drive down the price of the physical metal which makes it cheaper to buy. What this tells me is to buy physical silver as much as possible and also to start storing fuel while it is still cheap. Once the market corrects itself the price of energy will go up and the buying power of the dollar will go down as everyone races to get out of the stock market bubble. People will lose huge amounts of wealth tied up in their retirement accounts and as a result this will effect the economy in a very bad way. People will not retire or go back to work because they cannot afford their bills. People will sell the houses they purchased because they cant afford their mortgages and this will lead to the collapse of the housing bubble and an increase in the rental market demand. In this time of transition it is those who are in jobs that are most needed, like in the medical field, Doctors and Nurses, who will have the highest job security while those in sales and the auto industry will find themselves in hard times, except for mechanics, who will have more business as people repair old cars rather than purchase new ones. This will affect credit, and banks will have massive amounts of defaults on loans, further crippling the housing market and debt bubble. People will lose huge amounts of wealth period, so for those with open eyes to the writing on the wall they need to protect their assets by buying physical silver and gold but more so silver. Silver is easier to use as currency in a hyperinflationary period which we will see, very soon, in my opinion. Over the past 50 years the dollar is worth only 2% of what it started out as. That is why you could buy a new car for $700 back in the day and the same car now is around $35,000. Think of a Chevrolet Camaro. In 1969, ~$700, 2017, ~$30k. Average house price was $40,000, today $200,000. Buy physical silver now while you have the chance and while its manipulated price is low. The usual ratio of gold to silver is 1oz to 16oz. Today it is 1oz to over 70oz. Gold is very expensive and yet silver is cheap due to the paper market manipulation so you need to trade in those paper 💵 for real, in your hands Silver, and realize that when the SHTF and prices come back to "true value" your house will be worth less than half, your 401k less than 50% if not 25% and the price of commodities like gas will go up to $7/gallon if not $10 or more. Gold will go up too but silver is the "common mans" precious metal. An ounce today is around $16-$17 so buy 10 a month if you can afford to. Sell your stocks and buy silver and hoard it up. Go to the bank and trade a $100 bill for a box of nickels and pennies because when the paper becomes so devalued the metal at least will still be metal especially copper and nickel which are themselves valuable and can be used as a medium of exchange. This is getting to be a really long reply but crypto will also go up as the dollar goes down but at the end of the day nothing will be a better thing to hold than real precious metals like silver and I would buy as much of it as I could. Also stock up now on food while it is still cheap. Store water just in case. I have a three month supply of rice and beans and some other food just in case people are forced to buy food at extremely high prices. You won't want to trade your $500 oz of silver coin for a bag of rice. Buy ammo (and a rifle/shotgun) because in desperate times people do desperate things and you want to be able to protect your wealth and food from would-be robbers. A bubble like this is unprecedented because each market is in one as commodities are cheap. I think this is the plan, to rob the wealth of the common man and create a second great depression, and those with the money will buy up land at very low prices as everyone is selling to keep their heads above water. "Beat the Street" (Wall St) and prepare now while prices are low and everyone is on autopilot. Buy extra for your family members who arent preparing. You have nothing to lose but everything to gain. Actually you have everything to lose if you have a mortgage and debt so try to get out as soon as possible. This is what a "prepper mentality" is and why people stack silver. Because once the dollars buying power goes down and people are being laid off those who prepared will keep their homes and those in needed jobs will still have an income. Reduce your risk, buy silver now and learn a skill. Sorry for the long reply.

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michiel (68) 7 years ago

Interesting commend indeed, I expect a very bad time too, a revolution comes never easy and I think we are in the beginning of a revolution now. I think people are waking up because of better information served by the internet and the elite is loosing control. Bitcoin gives people an alternative, and this alternative is way more efficient and will finally prevail.

My way of preparing however is not by buying food, silver and guns to stay on one place, but to own as less as possible what makes me incredible mobile. When shit happens it is easy to move to a part of the world where it is still (relatively) good and almost all my savings will be in crypto's, so I can bring it easily. Also some golden jewelry can be worn, but this is limited.

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freiheit50 (70) 7 years ago

Go to the bank and trade a $100 bill for a box of nickels and pennies because when the paper becomes so devalued the metal at least will still be metal especially copper and nickel which are themselves valuable and can be used as a medium of exchange

Great idea! But where shall I store these amounts of metal? I'll dig it in the forest.

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