I am too. I used to place 5k bet every weekend on a market that paid 10% and 99.5% chance of winning.
Edited- Used to the market disappeared after doing this for a year.
I am too. I used to place 5k bet every weekend on a market that paid 10% and 99.5% chance of winning.
Edited- Used to the market disappeared after doing this for a year.
And you lost it all? Because if that was a possibility then the risk was just awful.
Risking 10% gradually and then the thing goes away, that surely sounds very risky to me.
It's hard to explain without just telling you, I saw an opportunity that I could cover a betting market, where the chance of losing was estimated to be 0.05% chance. It was in a rugby union market. I covered all options except the rare event occurring, it was over 100-1 of this even occurring.
I maxed bet it every weekend for 5000 dollars and I would get 5500 back, hence the 10% profit.
If I hedged the rare market I would get 5250, so a 250 profit.
The reason it went away is because the bookies realised after the season that they were losing money some where! That's why I can no longer do it because they have made the margin so long now. Before they did I cleaned up over 10k profit.
What I am saying is, I was risk smart, I knew that the event from occurring would have to happen less than 10 times for me to have negative expectation, now the event would have to happen 2 times for me to lose everything. It's about having guts and the maths behind you, that's what I am saying.
If I am been a bit vague, it's because I know they read these posts too...
Wow that sounds like a +1.0895 expectancy. Sounds like the bookies have really fucked up.
Yeah it's hard to be a small bookie, there are probably many arbitrage opportunities if you bet at small bookies like at horse races and things like that. If they don't react fast and match their odds against others then arbitrage opportunity arises.
But online betting is different, here the market is more liquid, and the possibility of arbitrage, of any kind, is lowered if the market is liquid.
One time the odds were really inflated. I put 50 down they adjusted it and I cashed out offered me 300, I took it. Quickest money ever.