Interesting to read other ways of analysing the market. I will give you my perspective in relation with the Crude Oil market.
- There is not enough demand because China is not growing enough. China´s growth right now is artifical, generated with debt.
- I think that the prices will go down before they rebounce.
Probably your analysis is correct, however my doubt is the timing of getting into stocks oil related, well in fact any stocks right now.
I will be invested in precious metals for the moment.