I do believe this market can go higher than the last all time high but the bear market is likely still not over yet. There is some chance that bitcoin first goes lower to 4800 usd and there bottoms out. (according to my ew and fib ta analysis)
Howerver long term i'm very bullish. I don't think the cryptocurrency boom we have seen over the last 8 years has come to an end for a few reasons:
- Cryptocurrency has been volatile for a long time. Everyone that's been in this space for longer than 4 years has been gone through at least 2 bear markets. Cryptocurrency tend to move in a boom and bust pattern but it always goes up higher over the long run. The history is not guaranteed to repeat but i think it's likely we will see another big wave up in the future. It may be hard to put things into perspective now but don't let you fool by emotions.
- Cryptocurrency bubble can become much bigger. I like to compare cryptocurrency with the dotcom bubble we have seen in the early 2000's. Cryptocurrency has a lot of common with internet stocks back in the day. The internet is a datasystem to transact data with each other. Cryptocurrency is a more secure version to transact value with each other. At it's peak the dot com bubble was worth 5 trillion usd adjusted to inflation. This was a phenomenon in the united states not globally. Cryptocurrency is a global phenomenon. There is no reason why the total market cap of cryptocurrency can't be in the trillions but that doesn't mean it would be justified.
- Fundamentally i still think cryptocurrency is an attractive investment because it fits perfectly into what's happening on a macro economic level. It is a new asset class providing an alternative for currency, gold and stocks. Interest rates are very low and people don't trust the governments anymore. This creates pressure for an alternative to rise.
- Institutionals have not yet entered this sector. Pension funds and hedge funds are by law not allowed to invest into crypto when no clearing house can insure them against losing their cryptocurrency in a hack. There is also still much uncertainty about how crypto will be taxed and regulated since there are no existing laws. When this all clears up this is a big step for cryptocurrency.
- The current adoption rate is still very low. Most people don't even know what bitcoin is let alone altcoins. How can "this bubble' be at it's peak when most people still don't know about it?