A quick recap of game 1: LeBron played incredible as usual and put the Cavs in a position to win the game late. But, three straight questionable calls went against the best player in the world (something I've never seen before at the very end of a Finals Game) and missed free throw by George Hill which was followed by a huge boneheaded play by JR Smith allowed the Warriors to win in overtime. The overtime period got very chippy leading to lots of trash talk between Lebron and Steph/Klay and also between Tristan Thompson and Draymond Green, resulting in an ejection and fines for Thompson.
Occasionally in sports betting, there are dream scenarios which lead to massive profits but they are almost always very hard to spot before they happen. The way I look for the is by finding a correlation. In other world, I think of it as "IF this happens, THEN that will happen", and tonight I think theres a good opportunity.
Here is the IF/THEN scenario I am looking at:
IF:
The Cavs have any pride, they will be completely fired up and motivated by what happened in game 1 and will play their best game of this post-season instead of being let down and giving up. Tristan Thompson should be out for blood after his squabble with Draymond, George Hill should be fired up and want to redeem himself for missing that free throw, JR Smith should be locked in and determined to make up for that monumental mental mistake, Kevin Love was already fired up at the end of game 1, and they should ALL be looking to make up for letting Lebrons brilliant performance go to waste. LeBron will be LeBron in game 2 and might play even better than he did in game 1 (crazy to think thats even possible).
Other factors to consider:
- Iggy is out and the Warriors have not been the same without him.
- Klay Thompson is questionable and will likely play injured
THEN:
The Cavs could win this game in blowout fashion.
In this potential scenario, Iggy is out, Klay might play poorly or not play at all, Lebron will limit Durant again to a below average game. That leaves Steph Curry to do the bulk of the scoring with Draymond Green not shooting the ball well and hardly anyone on the Warriors bench providing much scoring. The Cavs roll players were 7-30 from 3 point land last game and that will likely improve tonight.
IF this scenario happens THEN the Cavs could win in a blowout. So what am I betting to maximize my potential profit?
My Bets for Game 2 are all on Bovada
Cavs 1st quarter Moneyline +195 Risking 2units to win 3.9 units
Cavs 1st half Moneyling +250 Risking 2units to win 5units
JR Smith over 9.5 points scored -125 risking 5units to win 4units
CAVS TO WIN THE GAME BY 17-20 POINTS AT 100-1 RISKING 1UNIT TO WIN 100UNITS
CAVS TO WIN THE GAME BY 21 OR MORE POINTS AT 100-1 ODDS RISKING 1UNIT TO WIN 100UNITS