I am trying to actively track the news in the United States.
Naturally, one of the main topics is Trump.
I can't wrap my head around what the heck his team is doing.
Why is that the case?
I think that I am looking at it from the wrong angle. I am trying to "hack" into their grandeur strategy and understand what exactly they are trying to achieve by doing what they do in one or three years.
The point is that they don't have any grand strategy, but they just react to the events that occur around them. They don't want to waste time, strategizing about how they are going to solve issues that might not actually materialize.
This can actually be an important lesson to all those people who try to over-strategize their lives, while losing on the opportunities to do some important changes in the "present".
So, these are the things that sort of "drag around" Trump. I think that he'd be much more happier to just talk about how cool he is, about how cool the country is and about all those great things that he's been doing.
Instead, he has to get into things like:
- Stormy Daniels
She's a port star. In 2004, he had sex with her and before/during or a bit after the act, he promised her that he'd make sure that she participates in Apprentice. This thing didn't come through. Through his fixer/lawyer, Stephen Cohen, he paid her the hush money in the amount of 130 000 USD right before the election in 2016.
Sometime after 2004, the woman started trying to get in touch with Trump. He must have not liked it.
According to her, she was standing in the parking lot, when an unidentified man came up to her and said to her that if she hadn't stopped bothering Trump, bad things will happen to her and her toddler child. She was flabbergasted.
She decided to stop trying to get in contact with him.
- Collusion with Russia
As far as I understand, Obama had very good information as to the collusion between Trump and the Russians right before the election. Obama also understand that Russia was lots of hacking and liasoning with the WikiLeaks in order to publish private emails from the employees with the National Democratic Coalition.
He decided against going public with them, because he was afraid that this will result in that 1) Hillary Clinton would win in the elections, 2) Trump supports would point to his using these materials as the main factor in Donald Trump losing in the elections.
As far as I understand, Obama expected that Hillary Clinton would surely win in the elections, so he decided that there was no use in publicizing the materials.
Several people with the Trump administration were indicted for the collusion with the Russians. This isn't just rumors or unbiased allegations anymore, but these are the indictments that we are dealing with.
So, did Trump collude with Russians?
- Several people, who were acting the official representatives of the Trump Administration, were indicted for some sort of shady dealings with the Russians at the time, when they were acting as the official representatives of the Trump Administration.
In my book, this means that the Trump Administration did collude with the Russians.
- Was it possible that they colluded with the Russians, while the higher-ups (i.e. Trump and Pence) were not aware of that? Was it possible that they colluded in order to further their own goals?
No and No. People like Manafort and Cohen do not do anything 1) without the clear command from their clients (in both cases, pre-POTUS was their client; I mean there's no ambiguity who their client was), 2) for their own purposes (this is not how this things works; they were planning to coat-tail to the big guy for decades and make really good money in working for the administration and then for giving speeches after they've left).
- Did Trump know about all these things going on?
For me, it doesn't matter that much anymore. I think that everybody who wants to see it has already seen that the Administration has been actively colluding with the Russians.
So, now what?
Mueller was appointed as the Special Counsel. His job is to investigate the allegations of the collusion between Trump and the Russians.
He was appointed in place of Comey. who was fired by Trump, because Trump was tired of him asking too many questions and trying to undermine the President or whatever.
There's some talk that Trump might fire Mueller. Many people in the loop say that that would be the end of the presidency.
Subpoena to testify
So, as we established before, there’s no chance that Trump will fire Mueller.
What's going to happen next, if Mueller continues to investigate?
There's two options:
nothing's going to happen
something's going to happen
The first scenarios would result in Mueller concluding the investigation and stating that no proof was identified and so they "went home". This is what Trump wants them to do. He persistently claims that it's all lots of "witch hunting". He says that the "fake media" is in cahoots with the "deep state". So, various components form the so-called "swam", i.e. the establishment machine, which "morasses" the country from Washington.
They want to get to him, since they don't like what he's doing.
Well, this may as well be the case. However, if there are grounds to believe that the sitting President of the United States has colluded with the Russians, then this is a pretty valid ground for the investigations in such a sitting President, irrespective of whether he likes the establishment, hates the establishment or has neutral feelings towards the establishment.
Trump tries to "mold" truth, making it look that they are just trying to "frame" him.
Giuliani Steps In
So, as we've established above, the Trump Administration might not have any grand and long-term strategy. It just reacts to the conditions around it.
A couple of days ago, Trump hired Guiliani, the former New York Major, to act as of one of his lawyers.
Guiliani went on a number of TV shows and said that Trump had known about the fact that Cohen paid the payment to Stormy Daniels. This is extremely fascinating, because one month ago from this day, Trump said, while standing on Airforce 1 that he did not know anything about any payments to Stormy Daniels.
Yesterday, Trump's spokeswoman, Kellyanne Conway, went to Face the Nation and said that when Trump responded to the question as to whether he knew about the payment, he said "NO", but in fact he said "No" to the question about when he learned about this payment. The problem is that it's the same thing.
So, basically, Trump said "no" to the question "Did you know about the payment?", while he actually knew about the payment. This means that the man said a lie.
Is it OK to say lies?
Yes, it's totally OK to say lies.
How come?
Because there are NDAs. Trump and Stormy Daniels concluded the NDA, which stipulated that they parties would not disclose any information about their dealings in the public area. In exchange, Trump paid 130 000 USD to Stormy Daniels.
So, Trump's lawyers - fully lawfully - say that she might in for arbitration because she originally violated the NDA.
So, it's OK for the President to lie in this fashion, since there was the NDA in place.
The better thing for him to say would be "No comment". By saying "no comment", he does not say nothing. It's just a good way to avoid self-incrimination and bad consequences, which he has to deal to as of right now.
Could he have said "No comment"?
I guess that he could have, but this would be seen as very fishy, so he decided to choose the easy way forward and say "No".
What's going to happen next?
Now, there's leaked information that Mueller plans to subpoena Trump to testify. I think that everybody sort of expected that Trump would surely comply with the subpoena.
However, yesterday Guiliani said that Trump might invoke the 5th amendment, which allows a person from self-incrimination. Guiliani believes that the investigators would try to catch Trump on perjury, i.e. lying to investigators.
The point is that we are talking about the US President, the most powerful person in the world. He must be getting toens of informaiton daily and it might quite hard for him to track all the events and make sure that he rememnbers all of the things.
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