by James Corbett
corbettreport.com
May 12, 2018
So it's come to this. The fate of the world hangs in the balance...and it's the EU that's going to be the deciding factor.
The EU? Really? Sigh.
You may have heard that the US scrapped the Iranian nuclear deal this week, setting off a series of events that could very likely end up in a regional conflagration. But if that's what you heard, then you heard wrong. In actuality, Trump signed an Executive Memorandum on Tuesday that reaffirmed his October 13, 2017 decision to deny re-certification of the JCPOA and lifted sanction waivers promised under that agreement.
Confused? Don't worry, so is mostly everyone else. But here's the bottom line: the "Iran nuclear deal" was not some treaty between the US and Iran. It was a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed by China, France, Russia the United Kingdom, the United States, the EU and Iran. In other words, only one player in this seven-member deal is walking away from the table.
This is not a trivial distinction. What it means is that it is still perfectly possible that the other signatories to the agreement could continue on with the agreement or hammer out some replacement for it. At the very least, Europe could stand up to Washington's sanctions regime...if they followed Mish Shedlock's advice and "Grow a Backbone on Something Important," that is. As Mish points out, billions of dollars of European business are on the line. That money will be lost if the Europeans just roll over and accept US demands to wind down all business in Iran in the next three to six months.
Deals that will be scuttled if Europe complies with the US sanctions include:
- A $20 billion order of 100 Airbus jets from Iran Air.
- A $1 billion natural gas extraction deal project led by France's Total SA.
- An $800 million automotive joint venture between Iran and Renault.
- Hundreds of millions of dollars of investments, development projects, licensing agreements and sales by Royal Dutch Shell and BP.
And lest there be any confusion on the matter, let's be clear: These are not idle threats. When French banking group BNP Paribas SA dared to circumvent US sanctions on Iran, Cuba and Sudan between 2004 and 2012, a US judge forced them to forfeit a staggering $8.83 billion in profit and fined them a further $140 million to boot. This was a US judge, mind you, in US court upholding US sanctions, and ruling against a French bank. But when you are the self-appointed policeman of the world you get to throw anyone you want in jail. After all, who's going to stop you?
Bear in mind, this isn't some conspiratorial 3D chessboard political game going on. It's right there on the table. The US is telling Europe to jump and it's daring the Europeans to say anything other than "Sir, yes, sir!" This arrogance is so over the top, in fact, that France's ambassador to the UN has coined a whole new word to describe it: "unisolationism." It's a portmanteau of unilateralism and isolationism, and no one (least of all the Trump administration) would deny that it describes Washington's geopolitical philosophy.
And so it boils down to this: The EU and its leading nations have some soul searching to do. Are they going to roll over and do what they're told, like Uncle Sam's dependable lapdog, or are they going to defy their erstwhile master and refuse to comply with a new round of Iranian sanctions?
If this soul-searching at the heart of Europe sounds vaguely familiar to you, that's because it's nothing new. And this isn't just about Iran; it's about the shape of global geopolitics.
I wrote about this struggle last year in an editorial titled "US Battles Russia for Heart of the EU." Don't forget, it was less than a year ago that a similar sanctions scenario (this time involving Russia) likewise placed a fork-in-the-road in front of Europe: Go along with American sanctions at the expense of Europe's own business interests, or defy Uncle Sam and begin constructing a Eurasian alternative to the Pax Americana that has dominated the globe since the Second World War.
It may be said that no such radical realignment of Europe took place last year, but these types of world-historical changes generally do not take place all at once. They happen little by little over a period of years until the change can no longer be denied. So, is there any indication that Europe is inching out from under the American umbrella? Why, yes. Actually there are.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that "It’s no longer the case that the United States will simply just protect us. Rather, Europe needs to take its fate into its own hands, that's the task of the future."
EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has come out hard against the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, stating that Washington "no longer wants to cooperate with other parts in the world" and, as a result, "has lost vigor [as an international actor], and because of it, in the long term, influence."
And in a more concrete sense, the EUrocrats are reportedly rushing "to pull together legislation aimed at defending European companies from Washington's new crackdown on Iran."
Now the punditsphere is openly musing on the questions of whether or not Europe has rebelled and what kind of relationship will be possible between Brussels and Washington going forward.
It's a good question, and an important one. As I've pointed out many times before, we are being prepared for a transition away from the unipolar American-dominated world into a multi-polar BRICS-led "alternative" global system. As I've also pointed out many times before, this "alternative" is a false one, and those interested in human freedom should not be swept up in choosing sides in this false dialectic.
But make no mistake: a change is occurring, and with every passing year it is becoming more and more obvious that Europe's long-term economic interests revolve around forging new, deeper ties with its Eurasian neighbors. Whether or not the EU ultimately goes along with America's Iranian sanctions will be a bellwether of how quickly that change is taking place.
I suspect there are deeper levers moving those treated on the public stage. Amongst other evidence for this is the radicalization of various susceptible European nations, like UK, Sweden, and Germany, where terrorists are being emplaced to drive nationalism as a response to such depredations.
A European civil war is in the offing. During such a conflict, it is difficult to parse the role of NATO, but I suspect NATO and the US, as well as ASEAN neighbors, will all be on the side of the EU 'national' forces.
What would be the result of such a conflict that decisively crushed national sovereignty movements across Europe? A Fascist neoliberal despotism practically identical to a Fourth Reich, allied with US via NATO, and a profiteering partner with ASEAN countries.
Factions within the cabals are jockeying for position, and the Soros wing is being opposed by this move that will raise different players to the top to rake the cream of profits than HRC would have. However, that's really the only difference between the Trump and Soros factions.
It will make no difference to us, who will be milked either way to supply that cream.
Both factions seek profitable war against Iran. Putin and Xinping seek more profitable--to them--industrial development and commerce with Iran. Certainly the Iranians do. Soros and Trump, however, are both Zionists, and firmly in the Israeli orbit drawn around the power of Israeli technological dominance in corporate surveillance that is the most potent weapon in the world at present.
There is another way this can be decided.
We can undertake to supersede that surveillance with our own. The people can directly possess this most powerful weapon in the world, and we do not need to pretend we are being represented by 'The People' in the form of states, corporations, and the organizations pretending to act on our behalf while actually usurping our direct power and felicity.
I reckon we should take that latter course.
Thanks!
I like your analysis @valued-customer, you tend to have a very sharp eye about these affairs ;)
Great work James as usual, I completely agree with you when you say:
<<we are being prepared for a transition away from the unipolar American-dominated world into a multi-polar BRICS-led "alternative" global system. As I've also pointed out many times before, this "alternative" is a false one, and those interested in human freedom should not be swept up in choosing sides in this false dialectic.>>
So which alliance will try to enslave us first ? and more importantly, what can we do to disrupt the new world order? Aside from sharing this information as much as we can to wake people up and aside voting with our money, like you often say, and not finance our own demise and enslavement?
In that case we are screwed! ;)
The French banking group that was fined for breaking the sanctions went to jail?
The Europeans are our bitches, they rely on the American taxpayer to keep them safe, because of that they have to do what we say. That won't change because even though they have made a few comments they are not going to actually want to have to foot the bill for their own defense.
The "Iran Deal" is no deal at all, it contained nothing but "voluntary measures", I can't seem to find where Iran even signed it, can you?
Interesting times we live in. I'm curious to see what happens with the US as well as the EU. The US is beating its war drums. I'm guessing the urgency is because its debt is off the charts and it can't survive on its own, so it has to invade and plunder from other countries. The middle east is rich in oil and that would allow the US to have some leverage on oil prices, prolonging its petrodollar ponzi scheme.
EU has grown comfortable in the shadow of US hegemony. I imagine these moves Trump is making are quite a wake up call. But I doubt EU would consider an economic alliance with Russia and China, even if that would be in its best interest?
It seems like a long row of dominos is just waiting for the first to fall. Who will be brave enough to tell the bully "NO! You can't have my lunch $ anymore. We'll not blindly follow your every whim any longer." As someone who was bullied, I know once the first kid puts up a fight, even if he gets beat up, does end a bully's power in the mind of his victims & soon no one will take the would-be oppressor seriously. Then his threats have no power leaving a pathetic loser who you're more likely to pity than to fear. It's the end of an empire Y'all & I hope this is the defining event that starts the long slow loss of power & influence that the U.S. has so long abused & lorded over its allies & foes alike.
On a different note, I have a few colleagues & friends who are firefighters. I can't wait to use my new word on'em the next time we talk, "conflagration". Over the years @corrbetreport has been great for my vocabulary...so thanks James for helping me to sound much much smarter than I really am.
@corbettreport Amazing as usual James. I have been following you on multiple platforms for 5 years now, this is the first time I am commenting directly to your post. I find your work very inspired and inspiring.
Thank you very much for this James, but unfortunately I cannot share your optimism that the European countries change their ways and views.
Being German, I am very convinced that Ms. Merkel will stand by the US this time again. Even after the revelation that CIA was spying on Ms. Merkel she did not turn against the US.
And when it comes to the European Union it is even less likely. The eastern European countries like Poland, Czech Republic or Slovakia will not turn to Asia, to Russia any time soon. Their hate towards Russia is too deep and their natural ally against the "Bad Russian" is and will be the US. And I do not see that change any time soon.
When it comes to all these European politicians shouting out against the US solo attempt to change Iran, all I can say is "barking dogs don't bite".
So, as reluctantly as I might say this, but the European countries will this time again jump when the US orders it and they will even jump into the war with Iran, even or especially when Iran gets support from Russia.
EU is going strong into… the civil war, @corbettreport. One way or another.
I don’t see anyone taking this for much longer . We had a bully on our block once while I was very young , and one day everyone on that block just got fed up and gang banged that boy . There were some of us kicking him in the face , and others were punching him . I still remember his look of shock on his face as some girls became involved . Then his mean X Marine dad came looking for us , and when he saw that we were all smaller then his son he just looked embarrassed . LOL . I think the E.U. And their communist cousin The USA corporation are looking at getting their asses kicked by their own people . A world revolution is coming . And it is not going to be pretty . Because I’ll tell you what if Russia , and China see an opportunity to kick some ass for free , then I think they’ll be in on this gang bang . Thanks 🙏 great report .