Putin’s lies grows desperate to the point of comedy

Tomorrow it will be three weeks since Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. And while the Kremlin initially insisted that its “special operation” has been going “according to plan”, one may now ask what kind of plan they had in mind if this is the outcome they expected. Of course, it’s all just propaganda in an attempt to keep the Russian population as supportive and loyal as possible. Nothing proves this more than the now incoherent lies coming from Putin himself, with claims that are now completely different to what was said in the start of the war, indicating a change of tactic.

Putin rambling speech tuesday.png

^{Putin speaking to the public on Wednesday 16th of March 2022. Making the most vile and absurd claims yet.}

A narrative pivot by the Kremlin

Today, Putin went on a new rant claiming that Ukraine has been developing weapons of mass destruction, and that Russia would be the target of a nuclear attack and thus had no other option but to defend itself. He also went on to insist that the west had been looking for an opportunity to apply the current sanctions, and that Russians were somehow the victims in all of this going as far as comparing Russians to the Jews prior to WW2.

Needless to say, these statements are crazy, but what can we make of them or how should we respong? One mistake that is usually done when dealing with a compulsive or desperate liar is to try and deal with the claim. Instead, it should imply be asked why this is being brought up as justification for the war now, after an initial week where the only communication coming from Putin and his representatives at the United Nations were the need to intervene in Ukraine to protect Russian speaking minorities from oppressive Nazis. One may have thought that a tiny little detail such as preventing a nuclear attack would be mentioned as justification to the UN back in February. Of course, the reason it wasn’t is because it is just made up as a pivot after the initial narrative failed.

Looking back to where we were three weeks ago, the Kremlin’s claims were just as baseless and ridiculous, but also completely different. The initial claims made, and the articles that were prepared to be published three days later on the assumption that the Russian forces would make a swift victory, all focused on the rescue of oppressed Russian minorities through the defeat of “Nazi-leadership”. As we now know, this was all done based on incorrect Russian intelligence that the Ukrainians were less prepared for an invasion, less willing to fight, and generally supportive of Russian leadership. Based on this false foundation, the plan was made to strike swiftly and be left in a situation where few Ukrainians would care to resist, and where the narrative of the removal of some imagined “evil roots” could minimize the blowback. It also seems that this story was necessary in order to motivate Russian troops to enter Ukraine, as captured prisoners of war from Russia has since expressed painful regrets of what they describe as unforgivable atrocities after being commanded to also strike against civilians. This also explains the need for a strong pivot in the narrative that the Kremlin is selling to the Russian troops and population. Having failed with the “denazifying” and “demilitarizing” story, they need something more powerful to justify staying much longer than anticipated, and sustaining heavier losses than they thought they would. And what else can serve as a last chance justification than claiming that there is a threat of weapons of mass destruction? It should be obvious enough.

Responding to people who fall for propaganda

It is easy to get caught up in unnecessary debates with people who make wild claims that are undeserving of a view and should not be dignified with an answer. People who say that NATO has been an aggressor which is “to blame” for the conflict, or people who claim that Ukraine hosted Nazis or US biolabs or whatever else is the conspiracy theorist’s flavour of the month are asking you to come prove a negative that don’t exist rather than having to make a case themselves. While there are legitimate criticisms to make of the US and of NATO countries, blaming them for an invasion that is killing tens of thousands and creating millions of refugees is like if an obese person were to say that they themselves had no control over their weight gains and instead put the blame on a nearby bakery or the presence of candy in the local groceries shop. Sure, others can make the environment are you better, but you yourself are responsible for your own actions. As is Putin when he is causing death and destruction for Ukrainians, while also sending thousands of Russians to their graves while also tanking the country’s economy.

Rather than getting stuck debating whatever perceived or imagined issue some may have, just state these simple facts:

3 Million people have now fled Ukraine. How can that be called a “special operation” or anything that is specifically aimed at “demilitarization” or “denazification”?
More than 15,000 Russians have already been reported detained and arrested for protesting the war. Many of which did nothing more than hold up a piece of paper. A court in even fined a man 45,000 for “silently expressing support” for activists protesting against the war in Ukraine. In other words, he was just watching, and they assumed he was being supportive. Source. How aligned is that with anyone here’s idea of freedom of speech?
Fatal bombings have now targeted hundreds of apartments, hospitals, libraries, and other non-military buildings. How is that consistent with a “special operation”?

What should be clear is that no matter the angle one views this conflict, Putin’s actions are indefensible. Even if we grant all the harshest criticisms of the west or of Ukraine, it neither justifies the atrocities against the Ukrainian people nor the oppression of the Russians who disagree with Putin. There is no need to be dragged into an argument about anything that is rationalising Putin’s aggression or statements. It needs only be pointed out that they are inconsistent, baseless and not sufficient to justify what’s going on.

Where does this leave us?

The question that remains to be seen is whether these signs of desperation is the beginning of the end of someone who is quite clearly running out of option before he gets replaced should Russians run out of patience with Putin, or if it’s just the end of the beginning of a new escalation should Russians fall for the propaganda and instead give him support whilst blaming the west for their misfortunes.

I think it is more important than ever to treat Russian people well. Unlike Putin and his cronies who have enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian people, I want a strong and prosperous Russia. And more than ever, we need Russians to know that the vast majority of people in the west want them to be a part of a global civilization where individuals can pursue their own dreams and ambitions while finding peace and happiness. Of course, the whole point of Putin’s war in Ukraine is to deny that from his own people. But more on that later.

I suggest you read this excellent analysis to understand Putin's plan.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/323968

Short summary.
Putin hoped his early initial successes in destroying most of Ukraine's major weapons systems, penetrating deep into Ukraine and surrounding its cities and military would force an early surrender (as any sane and responsible Ukranian leader would have done).

This has not happened. Zelensky has convinced some Ukrainians to fight to the death, and die they will. Zelensky has tried to drag the West into the conflict and start WWIII. He may or may not succeed.

Now Putin is proceeding with plan B which is to crush all resistance (like he did in Chechnya and Syria). It will not be pretty. I estimate that Ukraine will suffer 200,000+ military casualties and perhaps half that number civilian.

In a few months time Ukraine will be subdued and will cease to exist as a nation state and Russia's military capability will be enhanced by large numbers of soldiers becoming hardened veterans, having learnt everything the West can throw at them and gaining much needed strategic depth.

Things are really bad on a military level for NATO and the media is deceiving you by feeding you the line that the Russian military is performing poorly. It is performing far better than it did in WWII and they still crushed the Nazis.

NATO should stop wasting its limited resources on Ukraine and start reinforcing the shit out of Poland and the Baltics. Vague promises re increased defence spending won't cut it. NATO needs 2000 more tanks in Europe ASAP!

At the moment the balance of forces is very bad from NATO's perspective. They don't have a single deployable armoured division (Russia has at least 6 in action in Ukraine) and no experience in high intensity warfare.