When Russia sent pembomnya flying over Korea Peninsula last week, it was just the same as the signal on its allies in Beijing because it also telegraphs to Washington that Moscow also turned to Asia.
The Kremlin may not be the most steadfast defenders of Pyongyang and critically in the fire, but the cameo in the region is another attempt of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to insert himself into the geo-political deadlock involving the US.
Experts say that it may also help distract from the forthcoming military exercises in Western Russia and Belarus next month, which has been disrupting NATO members concerned with the amount of buildup of troops Russia on the edge of Eastern Europe.
China, which sent bombers into the air itself shortly afterwards, declined to comment about the show of violence from Moscow. In its regular press briefing on Wednesday, China's Foreign Ministry said that it will not "count how close China and Russia cooperate in the North Korea nuclear issue," said Hua Chunying, a spokesman for the Ministry.
"Just like China, Russia played an important role in maintaining global peace and stability as well as promoting a peaceful solution to the issue of hotspots in this area," said Hua. "China is willing to strengthen cooperation and coordination with Russia to jointly maintain peace and stability in the region and around the world."
The Real Trouble Maker
If China was disrupted by the once dominant Komunisnya partners who want to master more influence in this region, then it does not outwardly show that concern.
"I think China is convinced that economic development, the development of its military, is taking place faster than Russia, so in the long run Russia has no position to seriously challenge the core interests of China," said Zhao Tong, a colleague at the center of a Global Policy for the Carnegie-Tsinghua in Beijing. "There is some element of rivalry between the two countries, but their shared concern about the US is much greater than at present."
Both Moscow and Beijing "share basic perceptions about who the makers of the real problem and who the biggest public threat on the peninsula of Korea," said Tong told CNN.
The maker of that problem, he said, is the United States, and more specifically, the occupant of the White House.
"The Secretary (Rex) Tillerson said he wanted to do diplomacy before considering other options except rhetoric from the other people in the White House-(U.s. President Donald) Trump tweeting that talking is not the answer, I think from the perspective of China United States. still considering military options so the do not convince the leaders in North Korea or China, "said Tong.
Any act committed Pyongyang, said Tong, could be construed by Beijing and Moscow as a reaction to increased Trump posture.
Putin seems to be repeating this on Thursday when he called for efforts to make the regime of Kim Jong Un halting its nuclear program "a stalemate."
"Russia believes that the policy to put pressure on Pyongyang to stop its nuclear missile program is misguided and futile," Putin said in an article released by the Kremlin. "Provocations pressure and retreats, militeris and insult is a stalemate."
Russia recently made a breakthrough to counter the influence of China against North Korea. Overtures including Russia on the debt forgiveness in the Soviet era, of which $10 billion because Pyongyang is removed from the Kremlin. Moscow is one of the largest food aid donor to North Korea, and in addition to Beijing, the recently exposed U.s. Treasury sanctions because it sells oil to North Korea's regime.
It's all intentional, said Samuel Ramani, a specialist foreign policy of Russia.
"When Russia took an increasingly assertive approach toward World Affairs, it reminded its citizens about the status of the Soviet Union as a superpower that can affect conflict around the world," Ramani wrote in the Washington Post in late July. "In this case, increasing Russia's attention to the North Korea is very similar to its military intervention in Syria and their diplomatic presence that extends in Libya and Afghanistan. Moscow tried once again to project itself as a global power. "
Old rivalry reignites
The impetus between the two powers over North Korea have historical roots that long decades.
"To a certain extent began when China and Russia into a Communist influence in the world of competition, they are fighting the battle of the border at the end of the 1960s," said Carl Schuster, a retired Navy Captain and now a professor at Hawaii Pacific University.
Kim Il Sung, founder of North Korea, was a guerrilla leader who became a leading member of the Soviet Red Army and served in it until the end of World War II. Upon returning to Korea after 26 years was exiled, the Soviets put him as head of the Communist Party of Korea. With their help, he built an army and air force, and then announced the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in 1948.
"Russia has a greater advantage, they have a greater influence in the region," recalls Schuster. "When the Berlin wall collapsed, Russia became very poor and China dominate."
During the last 25 years Russia has almost no ability to influence Pyongyang; It can't provide tech support or invest significantly in North Korea. Now, Schuster said, "Putin sees an opportunity to increase his influence, maybe not much, but it would be better than what he had, and this distracts the Americans."
Anything small that may sway him get, that, coupled with China's position that North Korea, with its wobble highlights the possibility that there are no forces that enjoy friendly relations with the isolated regime.
"There is a sense of profound distrust on the basis of North Korea's relations with China and even with Russia," said James Person, a Korea scholar at the Wilson Center. "There is a perception especially with China that Beijing has been too interventionist for years and do not respect the sovereignty of Korea."
China and Russia are both share borders with North Korea, a demarcation that has shifted from time to time due to the territorial disputes resolved, and one of which each has a jealous guard.
People say that China's determination to build a regional hegemony, or "respect zones" that occurred in North Korea has created confusion among Western observers about the ability of China to control Pyongyang. "People in Washington, including the President of Trump, believe that China can pick up the phone and solve problems but because of the history of this tortured relationship they didn't have the ability to exercise political influence over on will North Korea."
In addition, there is a risk of North Korea in denouncing North Korea, something that has been coupled with the statement so far May in which state news agency of North Korea publicly admonish China because it prohibits the import of coal from North Korea after a test run missile Feb.
North Korea's statement warned China would have "serious consequences," and said that Beijing should "no longer try to test the limits of the patience of the DPRK."
"The DPRK will never ask the maintenance of friendship with China, risking the same preciousness of its nuclear program with his own life, regardless of how valuable his friendship," the commentary stated.
But China chose to endure a real threat. Beijing will always choose the current leadership in Pyongyang against any possible following Kim dynasty had fallen, said the Person.
"I think they would rather deal with North Korea's current regime with nuclear weapons than South Korea ultimately unify Korea which puts U.S. Treaty allies at the doorstep of China," he said.
Moscow's own relations with Washington became increasingly worse every day. On Thursday, the administration of Trump announced will close the diplomatic missions in Russia U.S. cities, apparently in response to orders from the Foreign Ministry of Russia in July to Washington to cut their diplomatic staff in Russia almost half of it.
Either Moscow or Beijing trying to keep the U.S. remain in the right places to protect their own interests in the region, something that people say that the U.S. can take advantage of the upside if it can overcome the panic of Korea The North and conducting diplomacy again. Even now, he says, there are "talks about talks" that could lead to a de-escalation. But that option is on the President of Trump.
"The important thing, the US must realize that simply having the ability to give Pyongyang what it wants," said the Person. "Yes, China is important in the region, but never outsource to China again, especially given the fact that China tries to reaffirm this hegemony in the region. With the North Korea policy to outsource to China, we only conspired with them. do this. "
The U.S. must also contend with the assumption that Moscow will also embrace a larger role.
"Russia wants to be, and be seen as a great strength, he wanted to lead the countries that are against the power and influence of the West. In defying the United Nations and North Korea, Russia supports strengthening the status inside and outside the country, "said Ramani. "So, the alignment of North Korea with Moscow is likely to be stronger in the near future."
source : CNN
By. Jamie Tarabay, CNN
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Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/01/asia/russia-north-korea-analysis/index.html
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