President Trump and The North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun decided to hold a summit in May.
This historical meeting was driven by US pressure on North Korea.
The 'pressure' is the US 'comprehensive maritime interdiction'.
A diplomatic source said "Kim Jong-un communicate his intention to the South Korean envoy that he is eager to meet with Trump on the condition of halting further nuclear missile test Somehow, because he want to avoid the 'comprehensive maritime interdiction' of the United States."
The US Treasury Department registered 27 vessels, 27 companies and 1 individual in China, Singapore, Taiwan, Panama to 'Special restriction target'.
It means that they will investigate ships suspected of transporting weapons, oil, coal, etc., on international sea, and sanction them if they become problems.
In the meantime, North Korea suspected that they turned off 'Automatic Identification System' during the voyage and manipulated country of origin as China or Russia for illegally trade.
I think the United States has decided to crack down on this behavior in the future.
If this new monitoring system of United States starts to work, the road to exporting coal, North Korea's main source of income, is blocked. And also importing through the sea becomes difficult.
In this situation, North Korea will not last long.
And there is a mystery thing in recent of North Korea's Economy.
Before speaking, The international community banned the extraction of North Korea's main export items through four times of UN meeting last year.
In Dr. Choi, the Korea Institute for International Policy Studies, In 2017, North Korea's exports fell 37% from last year due to UN sanctions. It's because exports of anthracite, which accounted for 45% of total exports in 2016, fell more than 66%. So, North Korea recorded a trade deficit of $ 1.68 billion.
But! There is no problem in North Korea's Ecomomy.....
We can see in that North Korea's market prices and exchange rates remained stable in the latter half of 2017.
HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?
Do you remember the aforementioned explanation of illegal trade in North Korea?
This can explain everything.
According to Professor Park of Kyung Sang University, illegal trade in North Korea is estimated to be about two to three times as much as official trade.
IF oil smuggling is blocked,
At present, North Korea imports about 500,000 tons of crude oil from China and about 50,000 tons of crude oil from Russia in 2017.
In September 2017, UN Resolution 2375 decided that the total amount of petroleum products in North Korea would be about 10 million barrels and decided to impose oil imports, but China and Russia rejected and the sanctions so, they decided with 500,000 tons as a compromise.
Despite these sanctions, there is no effect yet.
According to Kim , a professor at Beijing University who visited Pyongyang last year, the supply of crude oil has dropped to less than half of the past five years, the price of gasoline has risen, but public transportation charges have not been hiked, and the supply of electricity is not bad.
Like the preceding, it is known that oil is being procured through illegal trade.
IT'LL BE A BIG DAMAGE.
'Comprehensive maritime interdiction' can block illegal trade, which is an unseen revenue source of the North Korean economy.
Due to this, North Korea will lose more than $ 1 billion and a huge blow to the North Korean economy by reducing its foreign exchange reserves from $ 2 billion to $ 3 billion.
If North Korea cuts its imports to slow the pace of foreign exchange exhaustion, it will lead to a deterioration in industrial production, a shrinking market, and a deterioration in the lives of ordinary people.
This is why Kim Jong Eun has no choice but to talk to the United States.
In order to replace petroleum with solar power, wind power and hydro power, the ratio of renewable energy has increased to 30%, and plans to increase the capacity of renewable energy generation facilities to 5 million kW by 2044 .
But damage of 'Comprehensive maritime interdiction' is too big to patch up thier losses.
This will also lead to a slant between North Korea and China and Russia, if the illegal trade between North Korea and Russia, North Korea and the China disappear.That is why Kim Jong Eun will try to talk more with the United States.
Kim JONG EUN WILL BE LED BY TRUMP AT THE MEETING.
When Kim Jong Eun and Trump's meeting are concluded, Trump will lead the talks at the meeting.
Because If the talks fail, then, Trump will choose the military option same before.
On the other hand, if Kim Jong - eun fails in the meeting, the oil that was the lifeline would not be supplied due to the sea blockade, and eventually he would have to watch the collapse of North Korean economy slowly.
<This post's informations from Professor Yoon Suk Hang, CIS Institute, Korea University, korea University>
So i hope Kim Jong Eun catch this meeting oppertunity and give up nuclear in this chance.
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