Cryptocurrency, Investing, Money, Economy, Business, AI, and Debt:
UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill
Algorithms allegedly being used to study data of thousands of people, in project critics say is ‘chilling and dystopian’
Ripple, SEC File to Suspend Appeals Pending ‘Negotiated Resolution’ of Case
Coronavirus and Public Health:
Scientists stop long-COVID symptoms in mice using a new antiviral compound
Politics:
Trump’s EPA Plans to Stop Collecting Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data From Most Polluters
Climate experts expressed shock and dismay at the move. “It would be a bit like unplugging the equipment that monitors the vital signs of a patient that is critically ill,” one said.
US Justice Dept bars its attorneys from participating in American Bar Association events
Trump must face defamation lawsuit from Central Park Five defendants
House GOP Hardliners Cave, Unlocking Process To Make Sweeping Medicaid Cuts
———— Winnie the Pooh ————
Trump Is Still Waiting for Xi to Call
A tariff reprieve from President Donald Trump sent global markets soaring on Wednesday, with the White House saying it’s been in touch with dozens of countries about striking deals, lining up calls and meetings in the coming weeks.
But one country was conspicuously absent from any outreach: China.
As the rest of the world received a 90-day respite, Trump escalated tariffs on China, saying the US will now charge an extra 145% on all Chinese goods that arrive in the US. In response, Beijing moved to exact pain on a strategic US industry by limiting the export of American movies, after already hiking its own tariffs on the US to 84%.
An unprecedented trade war between the world’s two economic superpowers is quickly taking shape, with both countries waiting for the other to blink.
———— Smoot-Hawley 2.0 ————
The United States economy has been the center of global finance for 80 years for one simple reason: Year in and year out, we have been the safest place to do business. The ground rules remained constant and when they changed around the margins, they did so slowly and transparently.
Investing money is always risky—but America had the lowest level of risk on the planet. Our government, legal system, and business community worked hard to make that happen and the rewards we reaped for it were tremendous.
Donald Trump destroyed 80 years of that work over the last week. America is now a risky place to do business. A place where the rules change from day to day. Where no business can trust in the sturdiness of its long-term plans or count on its revenue projections even for the next quarter.
This abstract problem is going to create real-world economic hardship.
What happened is that the bond markets had become dysfunctional as investors suffered heavy losses from the crash in equity markets, and needed to liquidate positions by selling bonds. The US treasury market is the world’s single most important financial market.
It was not the bond market vigilantes that drove up bond yields over concerns about government policy. On the contrary, bond yields had been heading downwards in strong anticipation of a tariff-induced recession… The level of 10-year yields is not, and was never the issue. It was the functioning of the market itself. The bond market vigilantes can be more dangerous when they are sick than when they are fighting.
The World Knows Trump Is Erratic and Weak
Anyone sounding the all-clear on tariffs, or Trump economic policy in general, should be kept away from sharp objects and banned from operating heavy machinery. We’re in a hardly better place than we were before Donald Trump announced a tariff pause (in a Truth Social post, of course.) In fact, we may be in a worse place.”
Here’s why:
- Even the post-pause tariff rates represent a huge protectionist shock.
- Destructive uncertainty about future policy has increased.
- We’re still at risk of a major financial crisis.
- The world now knows that Trump is weak as well as erratic.
America wakes up to a trade war this morning — just not the one we’d been promised. Trump’s bond-market-induced case of the yips may have won tariff reprieves for dozens of nations, but don’t be fooled. The trade barriers he’s pressing ahead with today still mark a 100-year high point for U.S. protectionism, and will have huge repercussions for the American and global economies.
Most significantly, the world’s two most powerful nations now find themselves in an economic standoff of epic proportions — with experts predicting pain on both sides.
The Bond Market’s Ominous Message for Trump
The stock-market meltdown that accompanied President Trump’s intensifying trade war in recent weeks was unsettling enough. The fall in the dollar and rise in bond yields that went with it have been truly ominous. So ominous, it might be why Trump changed course, at least temporarily, by pausing some of his tariffs Wednesday.
Normally when investors are this scared they seek safety, and nothing is safer than the dollar and Treasury debt.
But despite mounting fear of recession, the usual flight to safety hasn’t materialized. That is for several reasons, some relatively superficial, such as inflation risks, and one more fundamental.
Trump’s Tariff Whiplash Leaves World Confused
…Trump’s epic tariff retreat shows there is no grand strategy for revolutionizing global trade, and that he’s governing — as he always has — through gut instinct.
Trump’s allies see a genius at work. His critics see a madman steering the economy toward crisis. And Wall Street sees, for the first time in weeks, a president who is receptive to external pain.
———— Autocracy R Us ————
For those who don’t recognize the acronym, APA stands for the Administrative Procedure Act, a federal statute since 1946. Presidents cannot just say federal statutes are null and void.
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———— Melon Husk ————
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———— Putin&Krasnov vs. Ukraine ————
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Systematically Recruiting Soldiers From China
Beijing warns against 'irresponsible remarks' on Chinese nationals deployed in Ukraine
———— Mors Imperii ————
Mike Johnson Reveals His Disastrous Plans for Medicaid
Serendipity:
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