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The EIP and the non-linear reward curve make upvotes worth less on posts with smaller payouts which pretty much make it impossible for anyone to vote on those. Instead, it's far more profitable from a curation point of view to go for the ones you know will get a ton of upvotes. Those that do show support pretty much also get punished for it with decreased curation rewards.

I agree with this! Math is math. Even so, I vote for a lot of people who never break the reward curve so I know I'm losing to the maximizers in the long run despite a few lucky curation picks here and there. Hope you don't leave steem though because serious sports gamblers here are a rare breed.

I know that, but if the post is worthwhile and you're curating honestly, there's a strong chance that vote value goes up, once more votes come in, if they do. The low value initially isn't permanent, unless nobody else was interested.

If nobody else comes along, that producer still gets more than nothing, which is why I think it's bad form to discourage people from voting with that myth you're promoting.