Crazy Peerplays speculation thread!
Hey everyone! With the Peerplays blockchain well underway, I have been giving a lot of thought to how much my current stash could earn me over the years. I have been doing some crude calculations, and based on tons of speculation, but I thought the results were staggering enough that they were worth sharing!
First of all, how much of the Peerplays revenue will each PPY token receive? Well lets look at this step by step...
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- Each token is 1 of roughly 5.5 million, equaling 0.00001818182% of the total PPY stake. This means that for every dollar PPY distributes to token holders, you will get 0.0000001818182 dollars in return.
1/5,500,000 = 0.0000001818182 = 0.00001818182%
- But Peerplays only will distribute 60% (correct me if this number is off, but as far as I remember this is what has been mentioned) of its collected fees to ppy token holders. The rest is used for development, megalottery, outreach, etc... So If we calculate this now...
0.0000001818182 * 0.6 = 0.00000010909
- If we take the inverse of this....
1/0.00000010909 = 9,166,743
- Meaning that Peerplays must generate just over $9million for each PPY to pay out one dollar. Not too bad considering the ICO was only slightly more than $5 and the initial funding levels were much cheaper than that! Ok so lets continue. Peerplays generates revenue by collecting a small "rake" which is just a portion taken as fees from each bet made. Typically, this is around 4-4.5%, but this will be voted on by token holders when we come to that bridge. So lets divide that $9mil by 4.5% to see how many dollars need to be bet for us to still get that one dollar per ppy over the whole year...
9,166,743/0.045 = 203,705,401
So, for every roughly $200 million bet, each and every ppy token holder will get 1 dollar in dividends throughout the year. I know what you're thinking, but $200 million isn't really all that much in the realm of gambling. So lets think theoretically how much volume could ppy realistically have over the next year?
Well since it is still very young, and it will take a while before mass adoption, lets go with a measely $1 million. Honestly, this may even be an overestimate considering the real apps have yet to be released and some still won't for some time. This means that everyone will get about a half a penny. Man that sucks! And I paid $5 for this?
Well not so fast, during this early adoption period, ppy tokens will likely increase in value themselves, meaning even though you haven't gotten many dividends per se, you have still made a nice ROI on that $5.
So what about in 10 years? Well we need to estimate what a fully functional, hopefully mass-adopted Peerplays blockchain will generate in revenue. I have seen estimates that the online sports gambling market is worth up to $50 billion and growing fast! The best part is, that the anonymity and of crypto-currencies, along with the fact that Peerplays cannot run away with your money to some offshore bank account, can bring in other potential bettors who aren't satisfied with the current options. I found a quick link (I didn't fact check it, so sorry if its b.s.) that claims the untapped sports gambling market is worth up to $3trillion!
Now, we know that Peerplays won't have the entire market of online gambling(or do we?), but lets say that it pulls in a small percentage of that, $100 Billion. This is a tall order, but I believe it is possible somewhere down the line. If Peerplays attracts a volume that high, each ppy held (accounting for the increased supply to 15 million tokens) will generate $900 per year!!!
(500,000,000,000 *0.045 * 0.6)/ 15,000,000 = 900
How's that investment looking now!!!! Seriously though, this is just a crazy speculation by someone with too much time on their hands, but a guy can dream can't he?
Sources
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3040540/Global-sports-gambling-worth-3-trillion.html
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Not a bad writeup, but really think you need to work on the TAM (total addressable market). Going from $50 billion to trillions is quite a jump, and $100 billion bet annually would also be a rather lofty goal unless things REALLY progress.
In other words, might want to do a little more research on some EXAMPLES of how big the PPY gambling sites can actually get.
We'd start here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/paddy-power-betfair-to-launch-in-us-with-betting-exchange-1.2564517
Betfair made about $50mm in profits, so spread between 10mm shares of PPY, one could hope for maybe $5 per annum after MANY years of growth. With PPY between $15 and $20, that'd be about 25-30% return-- IN THE FUTURE. Not bad. But a lot of things can happen between then and now.