RE: Think...If humans are found on another planet

5,184,000 planets must have human like life. Here how I got this number
Do you know how many grains of sand are there on all beaches of the planet? Astronomers estimate the count of stars on the observable universe to be larger than that. Assuming they are accurate, we can easily calculate how many earth like planets out there. Using complicated statistical formulas like standard deviation, bell curve, probability distribution …etc. There are 1,728,000,000 earths like planets. That is also how many grains of sand on my back yard. 100 ft long by 50 ft wide and we have sand down to 4ft. Now, if life can start by chance and expand and evolve to be you and me, I feel very safe in my conclusion.
The paradox of random events is that randomness is not random at all. These events follow certain statistical curves. Bell curve (the normal distribution) is one of these. Which says
• 68% of outcomes fall within one standard deviation of the mean.
• 95% of the outcomes fall within two standard deviations from the mean.
• All of the outcomes — about 99.7% — fall within three standard deviations from the mean.
If we are calculating the probability of simple life (as amino acids or not as 50/50 chance), we must have 1,728,000,000 X .5 =864000000 earth that have or will start a simple life. I can argue at this point that if amino acid has developed, it is not random anymore passed that. Life must follow the laws of chemistry and physics and ultimately leading to a full and complicated life. But let just stay with statistics and randomness.
If we to consider human as the most complicated life can get, than 1,728,000,000 X .003 =5184000 planet must have human like life.
Giving that number of planets and 13.5 billion years, at least, that the universe has been alive, I am sure that I have been wondering at least one million of these wonderful planets.
crwod.jpg
The missing concrete number here is the standard deviation. Because we are stuck to this planet with limited means of exploring, we will never find that number. But we can guess. And that was my guess.
I hope you agree.