Poker Skill vs Luck

in #poker7 years ago (edited)

Discussed in the other article that the ultimate goal of playing poker should be making money. Of course, there could be many other reasons for different individuals to sit at the poker table - the list includes playing for fun, wasting some money, having some social experience etc. but still this game is about making money.

So there are only 2 ways in poker to make money - showing the best hand at the end or making your opponents to fold their hands. To achieve any of those two, there are again 2 ways - one is to use a some kind of skill and another one is to get lucky. Most often, the success (or the fail) comes as a combination of those two. Let's examine the combinations. For Luck we will rely on Gaussian normal distribution that represent the luck distribution between all poker players and for Skill we will define 2 categories only - Above the Average Skill (assuming about 20% of poker players belong to this category) and Poor Skill (80%).

  1. Above the average Skill + Good Luck (Lucky or Very Lucky). ~3.5% of all players. This is what we all want, this will make you rich. This is when a skilled player is in the Zone, plays the best play, makes the best decisions at the right time and even when he is wrong, the luck covers him. This is how you usually win a big tournament or solid amount of cash at the tables.

  2. Above the average Skill + Normal Luck. ~13% of all players. This is where most of the regular players usually are. The variation in the long term neutralizes the luck factor so it is the Skill that can make a profit for them. It is now extremely important for these players who their opponents are. If for example their opponent is from category 1 (Skill + Good Luck), then these players will lose money.

  3. Above the average Skill + Bad Luck (Unlucky or Very Unlucky). ~3.5% of all players. This is a real disaster for them. The problem is that they are quite competent and they are doing the correct analysis during the hands, taking the correct decisions but eventually they are losing money. In fact they are doomed no matter what they do...

  4. Poor Skill + Good Luck. ~13% of all players. Now there are players that don't need to work/learn poker because the luck will cover them. Those are the most frustrating players at the tables. They will take the worse line, will make the absurd calls and will push with marginal equity but the King Luck will win the hand for them.

  5. Poor Skill + Normal Luck. ~54% of all players. The biggest group of players, also known as “recreational”. Losing money constantly because of the poor skill and the rake. None of them will win something big, it’s a pure waste of time and money for them to keep playing poker.

  6. Poor Skill + Bad Luck. ~13% of all players. Those are the biggest losers or the players with shortest poker life. Usually they are those who complain that the poker is rigged and that they are cheated etc.

So think carefully in which category you are. Understand and remember that improving your poker skills is important but this is not enough. You need to obey to King Luck as well. :)

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