Thanks for this analysis.
I am puttingr this guy on a much tighter range.
I think villain never cbets unless he has a made hand. I think his range is ak+ qq+ maybe some jj+ or 10+ but i think he calls with most of that. Not sure if he balances this value part.
If he does i dont think he does not cbet into 3 players so i am putting him on a value range exclusively. The exception being a flush draw of course.
Now on thmy flop i feel i have enough ev to continue.
On the turn my hand is useless and i am strictly decising to turn my hand i to a bluff. I am representing a set exclusively.
I dont see the point of raising at any point but the river as i would not with a set. I have position with a set and i will never fold no matter what runout so whats the point of a raise ever. My goal is to get as big a pot as possible. So if i play the value this way my bluff has tonplay the same way.
Interested to see your reaponse to this.
I would also most of the time not continue with my hand, but i do have to balance and bluff some time.
The main part of this hand where we disagree is that I think pocket 88, 55, 22 (flopped sets) should each raise that flop if they are in your position. As played I would never guess you had a set by the way you repped it. If you did have the patience to slow play a set on flop and turn, a shove would be the more natural play too on the river. So I think as played you should have shoved river instead of leaving a bit behind.
His range after betting the turn is absolutely only AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 88, Ax ss, AK, and KQ.. I would call you down with that range minus the busted flush draw, which I think he rarely has on the river.
Very interesting to read your thoughts. I would never raise a set here. But certainly bet if he checked. I think he has to call down as well and players tend to not bluff this way.
So my question to you: How would construct your range here? Assuming you want to have bluffs and value?
oh btc-dialog is also knircky