The mistake:
Generally in a headsup pot there will be only two or three big bets in the pot on the third round, meaning the pot offers a player three to one or four to one to call and draw. However, four to one is generally the best-case scenario for the lesser hand to improve to a winner, and the better the odds the harder it is to earn more bets on the river. Therefore, calling a bet getting four to one or worse on the third round is generally a bad idea if you know you’re behind, or if it won’t be profitable for you to get to showdown the times you’re ahead.
How to tell when your opponents are making this mistake:
When they get to the third round drawing one, they generally call to take the third draw, almost regardless of the situation. Especially they continue even when their opponent stood pat on the second draw, or made it clear from the betting that he is pat now, for instance by betting the third round after playing passively on the second.
How to exploit an opponent who makes this mistake:
Be sure to always value bet when you think you have the best hand on the third round, and especially any time you have a Badugi. Don’t bluff this player on third for an immediate fold, but if he folds a lot on the end, snowing him can be very profitable, because he’s putting in a turn bet at or below his odds of seeing showdown, much less winning there.
Counterexploits to watch for:
It’s difficult to find a counterexploit because your advantage play is so close to regular proper play. You are somewhat more vulnerable to slowplays and third-round checkraises with this strategy, but you shouldn’t expect to see them. Most likely this player will fail to notice either his mistake or the way you’re playing against it. If he does notice, his response will usually be to start folding more.
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