Catalunya will be recognized, eventually.
It was the same story with Slovenia. Nobody recognized us for a long time. Strangely it was Germany who first recognized us and opened the doors for others to follow.
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I don't think it'll be the Germans this time. They are the ones pulling the strings behind the scenes. Honestly, I expect it will be Russia after Italy's elections in May as both Catalonia and Italy will be looking for new trading partners.
Catalonia and Crimea will be kindred spirits and the Russians will do this just to force the EU's hand further.
I agree with you that it won't be Germany.
Who will be the first? Hm, no idea. Maybe Russia. It won't be Slovenia. It should be. Our politicians are cowards.