The Problem
The South China Sea dispute that has been actively raging on for the past 6 years is coming to an end. China's artificial islands are almost completed, the military stationed in the area are increasing by the minute, and the neighboring countries cannot do anything about it as of the moment. So basically my question is, what will happen after the military bases are completed? Will they just stay there or is there an ulterior motive? Don't get me wrong of course there's an ulterior motive, however, publicly they are stating that there their stay in the region is purely economic in nature and not militaristic but their actions prove otherwise. More and more advanced weapons, radars, and runways are near in completion and yet further reclamation is still taking place. U.S. chief strategist Steve Bannon also stated that eventually the United States of America will go to war with China, within 5-10 years. What are you thoughts on this my dear Steemit friends? Do you think we have to prepare or will the problem resolve eventually?
Hey, nice article - good read.
I think war is probably very unlikely. It is surprisingly rare that countries have gone to war over resources in the past.
Basically, we know war is very expensive especially in the modern age with high tech, damaging, costly weapons. Unforeseen consequences causes costs to mount up indefinitely (see Al Qaeda/ISIS). For this reason it is unlikely that the economic gains from the ocean will be enough to justify a war on a cost-benefit analysis.
Wars aren't generally caused by the prospect of economic gain alone. Usually its some ugly ideology - whether it be religion, nationalism, perhaps some skewed understanding of one's country being a force for good in the world, caught in a struggle against evil (see Blair in Iraq).
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