Erdogan was losing ground in the polls of a referendum, in which his power is at stake. Erdogan is looking for votes of Turkish citizens that live abroad - and who are quite often also citizen of the country they live in. Western countries and organizations like Amnesty International have been raising concern that Erdogan is 'anti-democratic'.
Turkish foreign minister Cavusoglu campaigned in Rotterdam just two years ago - permitted by Dutch government. Apparantly, the values of freedom of speech and freedom of association were seen as important at the time. Those values are quite absent in public statements by Dutch government officials about the current diplomatic crisis with Turkey. Now, there is emphasis on 'we are not comfortable with allowing a dictator to promote himself on our territory'.
Dutch elections are this March, the 15th. There was electoral pressure from anti-Islam and anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders' popularity in the polls on Mark Rutte (the prime minister and leader of a conservative party that is in competition with Geert Wilders) to appear tough and powerful facing the Turkish government.
The Dutch government used 'safeguarding public order and safety' as official argument to, at first, advise against and later block the Turkish government officials from entering the country. However, the Dutch government didn't make clear how the concern for public order and safety was legitimate. If the Dutch government had allowed the Turkish ministers to campaign, Turkish-Dutch citizens would have had no reason to protest for Erdogan versus the Dutch government. The now occured riots are a self-fulfilling prophecy. Turkish people were triggered by (social) media attention to the conflict between Turkey and the Netherlands. Erdogan cum suis have activated Turkish people to protest. If the Dutch government had allowed the campaigning in the first place, people with both the Turkish and Dutch nationality would not have had to choose between both governments.
During negotiations between the governments of Turkey and the Netherlands about the alien campaigning, Turkish government officials made public threats to put pressure on the Netherlands. For a Machiavellian like Erdogan, it is not too far fetched to think he was playing with the idea to provoke the Netherlands into tough play. Anyway, the Dutch government now had the argument 'Turkey has forced our hand by threatening us'.
The European Convention on Human Rights (article 16) allows sovereign states to forbid alien political campaigning. So, legally, the Netherlands has the right to act as it has done. But the real question should be: is it smart? Erdogan is the true Machiavellian in this case; his popularity amongst Turkish citizens is rising as a result of the conflict with the Netherlands - he is even supported by political opponents. And while 'the Netherlands are fascist and Nazi's' is an accusation made by Erdogan that doesn't have merit, he has a point that the Dutch government didn't favor freedom of speech and freedom of association over political powerplay.
Turkish law on elections forbids political campainging in foreign countries. This law was established by Erdogan's party. The irony.
A Turkish diplomat lied to the Major of Rotterdam, Ahmed Aboutaleb, about the intentions of Turkish government officials, so it was a surprise to the Dutch that the Turkish minister of family affairs went to Rotterdam.
Some Dutch citizens threw objects towards the Turkish protesters. I don't know if this happened before or after the Turkish protesters threw objects towards Dutch policemen.
In short, it seems electoral gains at both sides have been important incentives for a power play that does not benefit citizens of both countries.
Nice points. I agree with you especially eventual electoral gains of both parties.
Actually Erdogan's attitude isn't surprising to me, after the coup attempt in Turkey, EU and Turkey relations got worsened. The words of nazi and fascist are extremely rude and not fair, since nazis also invaded Netherlands at WWII. But I really did not understand the Dutch government's motive that banning an ally country's ministers meeting due to public safety and deporting another by police on road to Turkish consulate. Those are really hostile behaviours for a NATO ally.
In my opinion, the Dutch government made a big mistake by banning the Turkish ministers. But with the electoral incentive, I can understand why they did it. It just turned out to be a game changer in the election results. Before the incident with Turkey, Geert Wilders was gaining ground and close to Mark Rutte. Now, Geert Wilders has not won as much as projected before and Mark Rutte has won the elections.
Thank you for your post, short and to the point. The news really made this into a more confusing mess than it needs to be. How do you think the politics will play out in the election?
This situation is coined by Erdogan, who is likely to win the referendum in Turkey now.
For the Dutch election, I see the following. In the latest polls, the conservative party of prime minister Mark Rutte and the anti-Islam party of Geert Wilders both gained 2 seats, relative to the poll of a few days before the current situation with Turkey. All political parties with seats in the parliament have supported the Dutch government and there is much support within society as well. It can be a real game changer because this subject is dominating the elections now.
So if I understand your projections correctly...Erdogan wins and the more conservative and anti globalist parties will benefit in the Dutch election?
Jup.
It is hard to say how much the conservative and anti globalist parties in the Netherlands will benefit, because there are many (new) of them in the election. Right now the polls say Mark Rutte and Geert Wilders will be the biggest parties, but only with 24 seats each (the parliament has 150 seats).
I don't see Erdogan backing down his power play, so the Dutch electorate may become even more aggitated at Turkey and vote even more anti globalist.
I am not familiar with the Dutch political system, but it would seem that no one party would have a majority? They would need to form a coalition?
If you were amazed by the fact that 28 parties are participating in the election, here is an absolute mindf*ck: 81 parties did apply to join the elections, but most of them did not meet requirements. =p
Forming a coalition is indeed inherent in the multi party system we have in the Netherlands. And election after election, it is becoming more difficult in the last decades. Because the parties that have long formed the status quo are losing ground - there are more 'floating voters' and in this election there are 28 parties that want their votes.
I see, this will be a very interesting year in European politics. I hope you will do some more posts, keeping us up to date on Dutch politics! Thanks for your feedback!
Thanks! Here is my view on the outcome of the Dutch elections: https://steemit.com/politics/@leendertderijke/the-outcome-of-the-dutch-elections-what-happened-with-geert-wilders