I'm sure there's a plethora of people writing blogs and making videos about this very subject. But, because I like playing the "mark my words" game as well, I figured I would throw in my hat too.
Mixing like oil and water
To me the way that the republican base is having to split their alliances is a case study. There are Trump supporters, I'm sure, who know that Elon is not truly an ally for idealistic reasons, but more because he's trying to secure his "ongoing success" and increase his power.
Also, it's quite apparent at this point that we are dealing with two very narcissistic individuals. People who think of themselves as gifts to humanity, and the "only ones" who know what is really going on. The godsent men who can fix all the problems.
This dynamic is sure to end up in a beautiful political implosion and we seem to be witnessing the first indications of the existence of this time bomb.
President Musk, What?
I realize that some of the people who are calling Musk the true president, are doing so to tease Trump into reacting. One would imagine, naively so, that Trump or one of his accolades would see this trap coming from a mile away and thus prevent the fuse from ever being lighted, but alas that seems to either: not be happening, and irrelevantly happening.
President elect Trump has already come out and clarified that Musk is not the President, and cannot be, since wasn't born in the US; a clarification that nobody truly needed.
Obvious to me that the creation of DOGE, the new department that Musk is set to run, is nothing more than a way that Trump found to let Elon play king while not really doing much. But, time will tell.
All that being said...
The first cracks in the walls
Yesterday I ran into a post where Elon was suggesting that the US should focus on importing more "brain power" to American Soil. These Visas he's talking about, HB1, are commonly used for the Tech industry, and that fact did not go unnoticed.
The true MAGA's are wondering at this point, while soaking in anger, What happened to America first?
All that said, this is not enough for the divorce to happen just yet, and I'm sure that soon, we will hear Elon somewhat retract himself or weasel out of the small room he just put himself into.
So, When?
Of course, If I'm not willing to give a tentative date, then this whole "mark my words" is bs, so I will oblige.
I say by March it's over. Elon will turn against Trump or vice versa, the MAGA crowd will be confused for a moment, but eventually will side with their supreme leader Trump.
This of course would leave the whole movement weakened, but it won't truly kill it. Why? because people are not doing good, and thus the need for someone to save them is not just going to go away simply because of the breakup.
At any rate, it's going to be a shitshow... in that sense US politics is very consistent, right?
MenO
I agree that this conflict will blow over and there will be another reason for Trump to divorce from Musk. They can simply announce some kind of H-1B reform which won't change much in the end. For Trump vs MAGA, his impossible promise to deport 20 million illegal immigrants will be a bigger stumbling block.
For Musk, what happened this week does hurt his image on the right as a free speech hero, which was already fake. This isn't relevant for his business interests, but it seems to be important for him on an emotional level. I went back on Twitter to enjoy and document the popcorn.
I don't find that to be any different than Trump's own policies. The real issue on that regard seems to be that many of Trump's base make no differentiation between immigration and illegal immigration, for what is likely a variety of reasons. During his first campaign Trump stated he wanted more legal immigration, to the point that there'd be more legal immigration under his administration than there ever had been before. Elon's factual claims about the USA benefiting from brain drain doesn't clash with Trump's policy at all.
I think Trump has more need of big tech billionaires than is commonly understood, and they, in turn, need a populist administration to make the technocratic changes to American governance they want. While the electorate may be puzzled as their biases and assumptions prove ill-matched to the intentions of the political parties in charge, the professionals running the show have far more practical, and less ideological, mutual understanding.
Thanks!
There are some big egos at play there, but Trump is pretty famous for firing pretty much anyone who's not in lockstep with his ideas of the moment.
Elon is only loyal to a version of America that furthers his personal agenda... if the Chinese could better help him get to Mars, he'd probably become Chinese...
Cynical? Who... moi?
On point! lol
It's a clash of egos. Both may be able to do deals in business, but I don't think they are suited to politics. That is much harder. Expect chaos when they are around.
One very talented immigrant said the same in a pithy tweet:
its a known fact that the rich and powerful buy off politicians... but it seems like they've done away with the middlemen this time around