-The outcome of the US-North Korean talks will play a significant role in the upcoming U.S mid-term elections.-
NOTE: This article is a slightly edited version of a piece that was written by me in April as part of an assignment for a Undergraduate module in electronic news media.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and US President Donald Trump. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
A meeting between the United States and North Korea is expected to be held in the coming weeks, and this comes only a few months before the U.S mid-term elections, a crucial date for U.S President Donald Trump. While some already believe that the Republican Party could lose its majority, spelling further turmoil for Mr. Trump’s presidency, a success in North Korea could help the White House prevent a Democratic wave from being voted in.
The US-North Korean summit has been in preparations for nearly two months, following an invitation early March by North Korean leader Kim-Jong Un that was presented to Mr. Trump by South Korean officials. The meeting is set to focus on issues relating to the North Korean nuclear program, the heart of current tensions between the U.S and North Korea. The invitation, and Mr. Trump’s acceptance of it; came as a surprise to many observers. Since the beginning of Mr. Trump’s presidency, both leaders had displayed increased signs of hostility towards one another. North Korea has maintained an aggressive stance towards the U.S and its allies by pursuing ballistic missile tests despite repeated UN sanctions against it, and Mr. Trump was regularly seen mocking Mr. Kim on Twitter and threatening to escalate the conflict between the two countries. The announcement of the meeting was therefore met with both enthusiasm and skepticism by several world leaders.
Trump reffering to Kim Jong-Un as “Rocket Man” in a tweet in September 2017.
-An Olympic Entrance-
North Korea’s invitation to meet with Mr. Trump certainly surprised many, but didn’t quite come out of nowhere. Since the New Year, both North and South Korea, with the latter being a close U.S ally, have made substantial efforts to rebuild diplomatic ties. This was most visible during the 2018 Winter Olympic Games that were being held in the southern Korean peninsula. Shortly before the games, North Korea announced that it wished to participate in the games in order and initiate a thaw in its relations with the South. This led to the re-opening of the Seoul-Pyongyang hotline and allowed for the first high-level talks between the two countries since the hotline had been cut off nearly 2 years prior.
President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea Kim Young Nam and Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, are greeted by South Korea's Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon as they smile before a banquet in Seoul, South Korea February 11, 2018. Yonhap via REUTERS
The Winter Olympics that soon followed became the center-stage to a historical meeting between a member of the Kim family and Southern officials. In another astonishing scene, the Games witnessed a unified North-South Korean hockey team, and saw athletes from both states walk the opening ceremony under a unified flag. This was unprecedented in recent history; and gave clear sign to the world that diplomacy was working it’s way into North and South relations once again.
The Games were quickly followed by a visit in North Korea of Southern officials, including a meeting with Kim Jong Un. Chung Eui-yong, a Southern Korean official who was amongst the Southern delegation visiting Pyongyang, delivered to the White House the invitation from the North Korean leader, which Trump immediately accepted. This was immediately followed by a tweet from Mr. Trump stating that denuclearization would be at the heart of the talks, and that this discussion had already been initiated between the two Koreas. This was ultimately confirmed when a separate Inter-Korean summit was confirmed 3 weeks after the meeting with Trump was announced. This separate meeting between the two Korean leaders is set for this week on 27th April, and the outcome will certainly have significant consequences for the meeting with Trump that should follow shortly.
A tweet from Mr. Trump in the hours following the announcement of the meeting at the White House
-The build-up.-
Since the announcement of the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim; a lot has happened around the issue and yet few details about the meeting itself have surfaced. When the meeting was first announced at the White House, Mr. Trump was prepared to “meet Kim Jong-Un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization.” A date has yet to be confirmed as we enter the final week of April, but it was reported last week that CIA director Mike Pompeo, who is also Mr. Trump’s pick to replace recently ousted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, had been recently dispatched to North Korea to meet Mr. Kim.
The goal of the meeting was to lay the groundwork for the summit. However, little has been disclosed about the conversation between the two officials, and a location and date for the summit are still to be announced. This could be because the North wishes to remain focused on its summit with the South before turning its full attention to a U.S meeting; Trump later declared that both Koreas had his “blessing to discuss the end of the war”. This suggests much of the details around the U.S summit will depend on the outcomes of the preceeding summit between the two Korean peninsulas. Analysts also suggest that the Trump administration is keeping a lock on the preparations for the meeting to prevent an embarassement in case the meeting falls apart.
-Is a deal possible?-
One of the issues with the question of a possible North Korean denuclearization is the lack in credibility of North Korean commitments due to the failure of past procedures, and this is the basis for much of the skepticism that has emerged around this expected meeting. North Korea has in the past negotiated for the lifting of sanctions only to resume its nuclear activities once it believed it had recovered enough economically.
In the lead-up to the Inter-Korean summit, North Korea most recently announced the halting of its nuclear and missile tests, as well as the dismantlement of a nuclear test website. This time, it claims that its nuclear program is complete and that it wishes to focus on economic development. However, there was no mention regarding the potential dismantlement of existing nuclear weapons.
So far, the signs remain encouraging. The revelations about Mr. Pompeo’s meeting with Mr. Kim remain unprecedented, and testified towards the seriousness of the diplomatic links that currently exist. This was the first meeting with a U.S official for Mr. Kim. The meeting between him and Mr. Trump is already set to be a historical event. However, Trump has made it clear that he is ready to walk out of the meeting should he feel it necessary.
Source: Twitter @realDonaldTrump
-Can Korea save the GOP?-
Should the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim be viewed as successful and fruitful by the American public, it could help Mr. Trump prevent his presidency from falling into further turmoil. Mr. Trump’s presidency has been filled with controversial decisions and statements, and some analysts believe that the Republican Party could suffer heavily from this during the upcoming November mid-term elections. Beyond winning control of the legislative agenda, which would already be a huge setback, a Democratic majority would significantly increase the possibility of an impeachment. The Republicans are well aware of this and have already used it as a campaign argument against the Democrats.
The timing of the U.S-North Korean summit is therefore particularly sensitive due to its proximity with the upcoming elections. Should the meeting lead to a no-deal, or either Mr. Trump or Mr. Kim pull out of the meeting, then Mr. Trump’s authority could be seriously challenged, as North Korea would inevitably come out stronger than it was before, having been given legitimacy and exposure internationally, with Trump coming home empty-handed.
On the other hand, a success in North Korea would be seen as a substantial and unexpected achievement for the Trump administration. U.S administrations have failed repeatedly since the end of the Cold War to deal with or contain the ever-growing threat that they perceive North Korea to be. An improvement to the conflict would domestically reflect as an improvement on what is historically a widely bi-partisan issue. Recent polls indicate that North Korea was amongst the top issues for both Republicans and Democrats in the upcoming elections, with Republicans even finding it to be the number one issue. Furthermore, should Trump and his administration strike a deal with North Korea, it would re-invigorate many of Mr. Trumps voters who elected him for his perceived qualities as a deal-maker and an outsider. Finally, a success in containing North Korea would suggest that the UN sanctions imposed most recently with the help of China have proved useful. Already, polls indicate that confidence in Trump on the North Korea is increasing.
-Conclusion-
The apparent openness of North Korea to diplomatic talks has been a welcome surprise in 2018. This is a significant opportunity for Mr. Trump that could help him secure a deal that would restore his popularity amongst many of his voters from 2016, and thus possibly avoid a Democratic take-over of one or both Houses of Congress. Even in the case of a deal being made, Trump must not cry total victory immediately; as only time will tell whether North Korea will commit to any agreement that may emerge from this meeting. A supposed US-North Korea deal would take a certain amount of time to ratify, and after the mid-terms have passed, regardless of the outcome; it could very well be that North Korea breaks its promises as it has done before once it has managed to obtain enough economic leverage.
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